Beaconsfield

2015 Result:
Conservative: 33621 (63.2%)
Labour: 6074 (11.4%)
Lib Dem: 3927 (7.4%)
Green: 2231 (4.2%)
UKIP: 7310 (13.8%)
MAJORITY: 26311 (49.5%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Buckinghamshire. The whole of the South Bucks council area and part of the Wycombe council area.

Main population centres: Beaconsfield, Gerrards Cross, Marlow, Denham, Flackwell Heath, Burnham, Stoke Poges.

Profile: An extremely properous part of the London commuter belt, located in South Buckinghamshire just outside Greater London, the M25 runs through the east of the seat. The constituency roughly corresponds to the area between the M40 and the River Thames. It is an area of affluence, picturesque villages, grammar schools and good transport links into London. Pinewood studios is based in the east of the constituency at Iver Heath, and is home to the largest soundstage in Europe. The studios have been used for many major film productions, including the Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, the Aliens films, Bond films, Pirates of the Carribean and the Hobbit. The constituency also includes Dorneywood, one of the grace-and-favour homes reserved for senior cabinet ministers lies within the seat near Burnham. John Prescott was famously photographed here playing croquet during the last government, but it is more normally used by (and, indeed, is currently used by) the Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Politics: This is an extremely safe Conservative seat, the Tory share of the vote here was one of the five highest in 2015 and their majority almost hit fifty percent. At the local level all but one of the councillors on South Bucks council were Conservative in 2015. The seat covers much of the area of Stoke and Burnham Hundreds... better known as two of the three Chiltern Hundreds, the Stewardship of which Members of Parliament are appointed to in order to resign from Parliament.


Current MP
DOMINIC GRIEVE (Conservative) Born 1956, Lambeth, son of Percy Grieve, former MP for Solihull. Educated at Westminster School and Oxford University. Barrister. Hammersmith and Fulham councillor 1982-1986. Contested Norwood 1987. First elected as MP for Beaconsfield in 1997. Shadow Attorney General 2003-2009, Shadow Home Secretary 2008-2009, shadow justice secretary 2009-2010. Attorney General 2010-2014.
Past Results
2010
Con: 32053 (61%)
Lab: 6135 (12%)
LDem: 10271 (20%)
UKIP: 2597 (5%)
Oth: 1434 (3%)
MAJ: 21782 (41%)
2005*
Con: 24126 (55%)
Lab: 8422 (19%)
LDem: 8873 (20%)
UKIP: 2102 (5%)
MAJ: 15253 (35%)
2001
Con: 20233 (50%)
Lab: 9168 (23%)
LDem: 9117 (23%)
UKIP: 1626 (4%)
MAJ: 11065 (28%)
1997
Con: 24709 (49%)
Lab: 10063 (20%)
LDem: 10722 (21%)
Oth: 2510 (5%)
MAJ: 13987 (28%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
DOMINIC GRIEVE (Conservative) See above.
TONY CLEMENTS (Labour)
PETER CHAPMAN (Liberal Democrat)
TIM SCOTT (UKIP)
DAVE HAMPTON (Green)
Links
Comments - 199 Responses on “Beaconsfield”
  1. The declaration for this seat was done outdoors at the 1982 by-election- is that a tradition for this seat?

  2. I don’t think any seats are declared out doors these days. The last ones I know of are Pendle and Brecon and Radnor in the 1990s.

  3. Hyndburn in 1992.
    Did Ilford North announce it again in 2005 outdoors?

  4. Was the Beaconsfield by-election the only one of 1982 that Bill Boaks didn’t fight?

  5. Ilford North in 2005 was a bit strange because it seemed like there was no-one watching it apart from the BBC reporter and TV crew.

  6. Oh no, I’m quite wrong, ignore me.

  7. In 1982 Boaks fought Beaconsfield, Glasgow Hillhead, Peckham, Mitcham and Morden, and Birmingham Northfield. He won 5 votes at Hillhead IIRC.

  8. Berwick-upon-Tweed I can confirm declared outdoors as late as 1997. Then there was Bath in 1992.

    Just out of interest, Andy, how do you know Pendle declared outdoors in the 1990s?

  9. St Ives definitely did in 2005. It was at about midday on the Friday.

  10. Sorry, Joe was right, I meant to write Hyndburn rather than Pendle.

    Pendle in 1983 and 1987 seemed to be a half-way house because it was in some sort of shopping centre but I think the indoor kind — it was difficult to tell from the way it was filmed.

  11. Skipton in 1979. But that’s further back. Pendle was a shopping centre – the steps they used may have been leading to the outdoors but it’s hard to tell. Winchester in 1997 May.

  12. I know that Ceredigion still declared outdoors sort of in 1992 via a clip of the declaration on ITN Source when Cynog Dafis first won the seat from Geraint Howells- I think it was done on the steps of the Town Hall facing the crowd outside.

  13. ”St Ives definitely did in 2005. It was at about midday on the Friday.”

    Interested to hear that SamW. I take it the BBC showed the declaration in that case?

  14. I can’t remember if the BBC showed it in the end. In my notes I have it down as declaring at 13.30 and the live programme may have finished by then or have been showing the One O’Clock News. Howard had already resigned and it wouldn’t have been crucial to the overall picture.

    I do remember Ilford (both seats) doing it outside although only Ilford North was shown (witnessed by a Bbc camera crew, a freezing, heavily pregnant reporter and a couple of surprised passers by)!

  15. Oh right thanks for that.

    Do you happen to know which seats’ declarations were televised on the second day SamW?

  16. I dimly remember Hexham I think and it is possible that St Ives did get on. Have found another note that says it was at 11.41 am rather than 13.30. I think I also remember Argyll and Bute too. All the Northern Ireland seats would have been delayed in the afternoon but that may only have been seen locally and on the News Channel.

  17. Thank you again Sam.

  18. Clackmannan and East Stirlingshire also declared outdoors in October 1974, as I think did Chesham and Amersham in 1983. Thanks to ITN Source I have discovered that the declarations for various byelection results were made outside the actual count, such as Stratford-on-Avon, South Dorset and Montgomeryshire.

  19. Are those declarations available on ITN Source?

  20. Sort of- I’m afraid only the speeches of the candidates at Stratford are viewable on ITN Source, while the clip of Emlyn Hooson speaking after the announcement of his win at the 1962 by-election in Montgomery is without sound, so the only actual declaration in full per se of the three is South Dorset.

  21. With Dominic Grieve’s speech the other day, it was mentioned that Beaconsfield has a high Asian vote.

    I was actually born and brought up here – though the ward I was in used to be in the Wycombe constituency, its now in Beaconsfield. I still have friends and family here.

    And I note the 9%+ figure – but where are they? Certainly not in Marlow, Beaconsfield or Gerrards Cross? Could someone please enlighten?

  22. They certainly are in Gerrards Cross

  23. .. Also to a lesser extent in those areas bordering Slough, as you might expect – Burnham, Iver, Stoke Poges, but Gerrards Cross has the highest proportion, obviously very wealthy Asians moved out of Slough and West London. Beaconsfield itself does not have so many and Marlow very few

  24. Some other seats that used to declare outdoors included-
    1. The Wrekin
    2. The Cardiff seats (as late as 1970)
    3. Brecon and Radnorshire (but not in 1992 I don’t think)
    4. Berwick-upon-Tweed

    I wonder if there were any safe Conservative or Labour seats that declared s late as 1992 or 1997?

  25. I meant to say how many of them declared outdoors as late as the years I mentioned.

  26. Of the seats listed above, The Wrekin’s declaration was televised in February 1974, the Cardiff ones in 1970, Brecon and Radnor in 1987 and 1997 and Berwick upon Tweed in Feb and Oct 1974, and 1987-1997.

  27. I still don’t get this obsession with declarations. It’s like finding the way James Alexander Gordon announced the football results as interesting as the actual matches. Most people don’t care how the results are announced; it’s the actual figures which are of interest.

  28. I’m not obsessed with declarations, I just find them rather interesting. You get the result much quicker if you’re either watching or listening to the declaration live, a bit like Eurovision in that respect, makes it a bit more exciting I think.

  29. I’m with Barnaby on that one. It’s a strange thing to be fascinated about IMO

  30. I find declarations interesting when you get a good shot of the candidates, supporters, returning officer, counting hall, tellers, etc. They can be quite dramatic if the result is close. Sometimes it’s the only time you see all the candidates together in one place.

    On the other hand I would find them boring if it was just a question of one person reading out the result in an office for example, with nothing else.

  31. ‘Revealing’ statements from the attorney general Dominic Grieve.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25210867

    ‘Mr Grieve said the move was not about telling people what they could say on social media but about helping to allow lawful comments.’

    Obviously one is not allowed to make ‘libellous’ statements about court cases, people etc but what does this statement mean exactly………?

    I don’t use twitter BTW.

  32. Looking at the official stats, Gerrards Cross South ward has the higher proportion, but thats a very small part of the whole seat – though I can imagine a fair few wealthy Asian dosctors and business people end up there.

  33. Iver Village & Richings Park Ward By-election result: Cons 422, UKIP 377, LibDem 101. Con gain from LibDems. LDs fell to 11% and that wipes them out on South Bucks Council. Turnout was 17%.

  34. The Results – if a balcony counts as outside, I think a by-election declared from one during the Major years. Sorry, I can’t recall which seat.

  35. Was it Eastleigh in 1994 maybe?

  36. The Iver result is in an area where there have been Lid Dem councillors for decades and now there are none. On a low turnout, it is difficult to distinguish switches in allegiance, from differential turnout of supporters of different parties.

    It does look to me that UKIP will have drawn on the same pool of non-Conservative voters in a very safe Conservative district. This mirrors the Bucks CC election results in Aylesbury, where the Lib Dems lost several seats, including some to UKIP.

    Where the Lib Dems are in decline, UKIP could prosper. Many electors will care little that the two parties have diametrically opposed views on many policies.

  37. Aside from places where the Lib Dems have worked assiduously to keep their strength (Portsmouth, Eastleigh, Bath) and presumably have healthy membership levels (thus suggesting ideological/policy similarities), elsewhere they were regarded as simply the main party of protest for a lot of voters who supported neither Labour nor the Tories. With their declining support and UKIP’s on the rise it’s hardly surprising that protest votes are now transferring to the latter.

  38. List of declarations or speeches in seats in 1992 that I have now found elsewhere on the Internet that weren’t part of either the BBC or ITN’s coverage-
    1. Ceredigion and Pembroke North
    2. North Warwickshire
    3. Birmingham Northfield
    4. Brighton Pavilion

  39. Any chance of saying where one can find those declarations?

  40. First three ITN Source, last one You Tube. They’re not the whole declarations, just brief clips.

  41. Easy hold for the Attorney General, hopefully nothing too Grieve-stricken..

    I predict:
    Conservative: 59%
    Labour: 17%
    Liberal Democrat: 14%
    UKIP: 8%
    Others: 2%

  42. I’d guess it would probably remain over 60%.

  43. I think so too. I”d be surprised if Labour reached 17pc and think the LDs will be nearer 12.

  44. Looks like Dominic Grieve has been sacked as AG. I was surprised, and a little sad. He always seemed sensible to me.

  45. He is…. but he’s also pro the European Court of Human Rights, and resistant to us having our own Bill of Rights as an alternative. As the leadership wants to dump the ECHR it’s not a total surprise to see him go.

  46. Clearly Cameron wants to do something on the ECHR, and has therefore removed the main stumbling block ie. Grieve.

    On the basis if the first announcements it is very hard not to see this reshuffle as a defeat for the Tory centre/left – Clarke, Willetts, Grieve, Green, Barker, Hurd, probably Lansley – all out.

  47. It looks much more like a defeat for middle aged white men who have been MP’s for more than one Parliament.

  48. Yes, but as in Animal Farm, some are more equal than others. Agreed however that Paterson’s sacking is a blow for the right, it could well herald a comeback from Fox to balance out all the new Cameron babes entering the government.

  49. Will Dominic Grieve stand again in 2015?

  50. Hardly matters does it. Whoever stands for the Tories will win & he’s history even if he does.

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