Ayrshire North & Arran

2015 Result:
Conservative: 7968 (14.8%)
Labour: 15068 (28%)
Lib Dem: 896 (1.7%)
SNP: 28641 (53.2%)
UKIP: 1296 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 13573 (25.2%)

Category: Safe SNP seat

Geography: Scotland, West. Most of the North Ayrshire council area.

Main population centres: Ardrossan, Saltcoats, Stevenston, Largs.

Profile: A seat combining the Isle of Arran with a chunk of northern Ayrshire. The Isle of Arran is linked to the mainland by ferry and has several villages around the coast which rely on tourism, leisure and farming. The vast bulk of the electorate though is on the mainland, although even there it is a varied constituency. To the north there is a an affluent, rural area around West Kilbridge and Largs. Further south along the coast are the "Three Towns" - the ferry port of Ardrossan, the seaside resort of Saltcoats and the far more industrial ironworking, chemicals and explosives town of Stevenston. Inland are the settlements of the Garnock valley - once dominated by the coal, iron and steel industries, with the steelworks at Glengarnock providing most of the local employment. With the steelworks now long gone the area has struggled with deprivation. The seat also contains Hunterston B Nuclear Power Station and Hunterston Terminal.

Politics: Historically North Ayrshire was a safe Conservative seat, held by the party between 1911 and 1987. For most of that time however the boundaries were more favourable for the Tories, the seat more rural and less working class (until 1983 it included the Isle of Bute, but not the heavy industrial Garnock Valley). Since then the Westminster seat become far more solidly Labour, but the equivalent seat in the Scottish Parliament is held by the SNP and in 2015 the Westminster seat followed suit.

Current MP
PATRICIA GIBSON (SNP) Former teacher. Contested Ayrshire North and Arran 2010. First elected as MP for Ayrshire North & Arran in 2015.
Past Results
Con: 7212 (16%)
Lab: 21860 (47%)
LDem: 4630 (10%)
SNP: 11965 (26%)
Oth: 449 (1%)
MAJ: 9895 (21%)
Con: 8121 (18%)
Lab: 19417 (44%)
LDem: 7264 (16%)
SNP: 7938 (18%)
Oth: 1465 (3%)
MAJ: 11296 (26%)
Con: 6666 (20%)
Lab: 15571 (46%)
LDem: 3060 (9%)
SNP: 7173 (21%)
Oth: 1346 (4%)
MAJ: 8398 (25%)
Con: 9647 (23%)
Lab: 20686 (50%)
LDem: 2271 (6%)
SNP: 7584 (18%)
Oth: 941 (2%)
MAJ: 11039 (27%)

2015 Candidates
JAMIE GREENE (Conservative) Born Greenock. TV producer.
KATY CLARK (Labour) Born 1967, Kilwinning. Educated at Kyle Academy and Aberdeen University. Solicitor and trade union officer. Contested Galloway and Upper Nithsdale 1997. MP for North Ayrshire and Arran 2005 to 2015. She is a member of the Socialist Campaign Group.
RUBY KIRKWOOD (Liberal Democrat)
PATRICIA GIBSON (SNP) Teacher. Contested Ayrshire North and Arran 2010.
Comments - 58 Responses on “Ayrshire North & Arran”
  1. Cunninghame North and Renfrewshire North & West both had Conservative seconds in 2016.

    These constituencies were both held by the party at the 1983 election, lost in 1987. They represent a working-class element of the Conservative party which has been lost to Scotland ever since (although arguably maintained by Conservative domination in Ayr / victory in Dumfries in 2016). The fact that they managed second place here is certainly interesting.

  2. Both these seats were notional Conservative Gains in 1983.

    The removal of Renfrew and Johnston to the new Paisley constituencies turned Renfrewshire West into a notional Labour marginal.

    The removal of Bute and the addition of Gartnoch Valley turned the successor to Bute & North Ayrshire into a notional Labour marginal.

  3. The composition of North Ayrshire council before the by-election was 12 SNP 11 LAB 6 IND 1 CON. The SNP have passed command over to Labour, who are now the largest political party in North Ayrshire council. I think the move is quite shrewd, to ensure that Labour are the incumbents in 2017 despite only being in power in North Ayrshire for 1 year.

  4. There are a few areas of Conservative strength around parts of Inverclyde, Renfrewshire and North Ayrshire.

    In North Ayrshire the Tories typically do well in the following areas:
    * Arran
    * Fairlie
    * Garnock (rural parts, eastern Beith and western West Kilbride)
    * Largs (suburbs to the north and south of the town)
    * Skelmorlie

    In Inverclyde the Tory vote is mostly concentrated around Kilmacolm.

    In Renfrewshire they typically do well in:
    * Bishopton
    * Bridge of Weir (suburbs to the south)
    * Crosslee
    * Houston

  5. Outside of the notional Conservative targets from 2016 I can see the Conservatives coming second in the following constituencies in the event of a general election:
    Aberdeen South
    Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
    Banff and Buchan
    Central Ayrshire
    Dundee East
    Edinburgh North and Leith
    Edinburgh South West
    Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey
    Kilmarnock and Loudoun
    Lanark and Hamiltonian East
    Linlithgow and Falkirk East
    Ochil and South Perthshire
    Perth and North Perthshire

    Outside possibilities:
    Dunfermline and West Fife
    Glasgow South

  6. Livingston should also be on that list I believe.

  7. I hope I’m wrong but I still think the SNP are going to win 50 seats

    My prediction as at now is that Labour will gain East Lothian but lose Edinburgh South to the Nationalists

    Lib Dems will hold O&S and gain Edinburgh West, NE Fife and East Dunbartonshire

    Tories will hold DCT and gain BRS, D&G and AWK

    I fear the entire North East is going to be a story of near misses for the Conservatives. Don’t get me wrong I want as many Unionist MPs a single possible.

  8. It looks like the North Coast & Cumbraes and Dalry & West Kilbride wards voted Conservative at the general election.

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