Aylesbury

2015 Result:
Conservative: 28083 (50.7%)
Labour: 8391 (15.1%)
Lib Dem: 5885 (10.6%)
Green: 2135 (3.9%)
UKIP: 10925 (19.7%)
MAJORITY: 17158 (31%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Buckinghamshire. Part of Aylesbury Vale council area and part of the Wycombe council area.

Main population centres: Aylesbury, Wendover, Stokenchurch.

Profile: Aylesbury constituency is tightly drawn around the prosperous town of Aylesbury itself to the North, but in the South widens to include a swathe of countryside around the Chiltern Hills (Coombe Hill, the highest point in the Chilterns, lies just South West of Wendover, near the Prime Minister`s country residence of Chequers), including small market towns and villages like Wendover, Stokenchurch and Great Missenden..

Politics: The seat was once the pocket borough of the Rothschild family, but has been Tory since 1924. Aylesbury itself has tended towards the Liberal Democrats, but the picturesque semi-rural commuter towns and villages to the South vote reliably Conservative and the seat as a whole normally has a substantial Conservative majority. In 2015 UKIP took second place, having campaigning on issue of HS2.


Current MP
DAVID LIDINGTON (Conservative) Born 1956, Lambeth. Educated at Haberdashers Askes Boys School and Cambridge University. Former special advisor. Contested Vauxhall 1987. First elected as MP for Aylesbury in 1992. PPS to Michael Howard 1994-1997, PPS to William Hague 1997-1999, shadow agriculture secretary 2002-2003, shadow Northern Ireland secretary 2003-2007. Minister for Europe since 2012.
Past Results
2010
Con: 27736 (52%)
Lab: 6695 (13%)
LDem: 15118 (28%)
UKIP: 3613 (7%)
MAJ: 12618 (24%)
2005*
Con: 25253 (49%)
Lab: 9540 (19%)
LDem: 14187 (28%)
UKIP: 2479 (5%)
MAJ: 11066 (22%)
2001
Con: 23230 (47%)
Lab: 11388 (23%)
LDem: 13221 (27%)
UKIP: 1248 (3%)
MAJ: 10009 (20%)
1997
Con: 25426 (44%)
Lab: 12759 (22%)
LDem: 17007 (30%)
Oth: 166 (0%)
MAJ: 8419 (15%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
DAVID LIDINGTON (Conservative) See above.
WILL CASS (Labour) Educated at Westminster University. Business development manager.
STEVEN LAMBERT (Liberal Democrat) Aylesbury Vale councillor since 2007. Contested Aylesbury 2010.
CHRIS ADAMS (UKIP) Born 1963. Contested Aylesbury 2005, 2010, Henley by-election 2008.
DAVID LYONS (Green) Railway manager.
Links
Comments - 64 Responses on “Aylesbury”
  1. Aggregate votes from the CC elections (one or two divisions are divided between constituencies so not a perfect fit)

    Aylesbury
    UKIP 7613 31.9%
    Con 7113 29.8%
    LD 4424 18.5%
    Lab 2792 11.7%
    Ind 1438 6.0%
    Grn 446 1.9%
    TUSC 73 0.3%

    Read more: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/519/page/2/buckinghamshire#ixzz2SMaC2CGl

  2. The Lib Dems seem to have had quite a battering in Aylesbury – mainly because of UKIP. They still had a strong local presence in the 2007 District elections – I’m not sure how well they did in 2009 and 2011.

    The most shocking result was the Wendover and Stoke Mandeville division, where the Lib Dems didn’t even make 100 votes. They used to be competitive in this area only a few years ago.

  3. HS2 has been massively influential in the county council elections. I’ve apportioned the split divisions to give:

    UKIP: 8,095 (33.4%)
    Con: 7,156 (29.5%)
    LDem: 4,804 (19.8%)
    Lab: 2,818 (11.6%)
    Ind: 945 (3.9%)
    Green: 446 (1.8%)
    TUSC: 73 (0.3%)

    More details on All That’s Left here:
    http://www.allthatsleft.co.uk/2013/09/ukip-target-8-aylesbury/

  4. Thanks for the figures, although a number of people have already had a go at this in various places, including Survation and Pete Whitehead.

  5. some interesting council results in Aylesbury by-elections yesterday…

    http://www.libdemvoice.org/lib-dems-hold-aylesbury-oakfield-and-taunton-halcon-36527.html

  6. Oakfield ward by-election here last Thursday: LibDem 406 (+7%), UKIP 325 (+16%), Con 173 (-10%), Lab 145 (-7%), Ind 118 (-7%). LibDem hold.

  7. 2015 forecast for Aylesbury

    LD 37 (+9)
    Con 35 (-17)
    UKIP 17 (+10)
    Lab 9 (-3)
    Otthers 2

  8. One of your more Plopwellian predictions I think A Brown

  9. I don’t think that that’s a serious prediction. If it is I utterly disagree with it! I know HS2 is deeply unpopular, but not to the extent that the LD vote will rise against a clear national trend by 9%.

  10. My prediction was of course a partial joke but HS2 is going ahead whether Bucks NIMBYS like it or not!

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/oct/29/hs2-labour-support-rail-costs

  11. This is one of a number of constituencies in which UKIP has barely built on its 2013 success. They only just notionally won the seat here in the European elections. Could it be that the more middle class element element of UKIP support is now leaving them, while being replaced by more and more WWC people? This wouldn’t bode well for Labour. Alternatively the UKIP vote here could be a protest vote against HS2, which would explain the election of UKIP county councillors but without a stunning European election performance.

  12. WHat were the notional figures for this constituency?

  13. Where in this constituency would that UKIP vote come from? I see they scored 7% last time.

  14. I didn’t work out the exact notional figures for this year but when I looked at the counting area breakdowns for the South East England region on the Southampton City council website UKIP only had a couple of thousand votes more than the Tories in Aylesbury Vale this year while in the Thanets and Dover the UKIP vote was double that of the second largest party this year, so UKIP has advanced a lot in the Thanets and Dover since 2013, but hasn’t really gone anywhere here seemingly. They might still be strong here, but the European election results for this area don’t suggest that UKIP is on course to win the Aylesbury seat next year, even though they notionally carried it in last year’s local elections.

  15. I expect that the UKIP vote here is the political wing of the golf club bar. I imagine that most of the UKIP support here is a coalition of anti-HS2 NIMBYs, retired colonels, and their Daily Mail reading wives. The wives are all ex-British Housewives League members naturally.

    Maybe I am stereotyping too much here. I live nearish Aylesbury and go there quite often and it doesn’t strike me as a typical UKIP supporting place. However the HS2 factor must be giving them some momentum here, given that the route cuts right through the constituency.

  16. To be honest I think that UKIP will be in the high twenties here next year, but that won’t be enough to win.

    Maybe something along the lines of:
    CON: 40%
    UKIP: 28%
    LD: 16%
    LAB: 14%
    GRN: 2%

    I think this will basically be a Conservative-UKIP semi marginal after next year.

  17. I don’t think so. There is a council estate presence in Aylesbury, but almost the whole of the rest of the constituency is very prosperous, in fact some parts have quite serious wealth, and is likely to stay strongly Conservative even though in days gone by the LDs used to win local elections in many wards. There is a little bit of a non-white presence in Aylesbury itself but, again, hardly anywhere else. I see this as a much easier Conservative hold than 40 to 28.

  18. Although I disagree with 28%, second place for UKIP is certainly a possibility. It makes me wonder how many seats (regardless of how many they win) UKIP will manage second place in. It would certainly give them an advantage in 2020 to be seen as the main challengers in a few areas.

  19. I will agree Barnaby that it is a very prosperous constituency and doesn’t seem to have much UKIP potential. I am basing my prediction on UKIP’s strong 2013 performance here though, as they did notionally carry the constituency back then. They won’t win here but I can see them being not much over 10% behind in a secure second place.

  20. UKIP did well here in recent local elections due to the HS2 issue, but I’m not sure it will have such a big influence on the general election.

  21. Tory Cllr Phil Yerby has defected to UKIP here and LibDem Cllr Paul Hughes has defected to the Conservatives here.

  22. Justine A Brown predicted a Lib Dem gain further up.
    lol.

  23. Stokenchurch is only a population of about 5,000. Perhaps it has a bit joined onto it -but I doubt it.
    Telecoms tower there.

    I think the LDs still have some residual strength in Aylesbury, Stoke Mandeville but it could be UKIP second.
    I think the Tories will hold quite well.

  24. Could UKIP manage third here?

  25. Well I think they could be second.
    Can’t quite picture second for anyone at the moment!

  26. CON 45% -7%
    LD 18% -10%
    UKIP 17% +10%
    LAB 16% +3%
    IND 4%

    ?
    I think the LDs could come third or fourth though, or the Tories better.

  27. Not sure this really is good territory for UKIP. Above average.
    It’s the HS2 issue I’m factoring in.

  28. ;Not sure this really is good territory for UKIP.’

    I thought this was one of about 15 seats in which UKIP topped the poll in the election before the last

    It certainly sticks out as more middle class, prosperous and educated than most of the other seats they did well in so it wouldn’t seem to be natural ukip territory

  29. The town itself is not particularly upmarket and most recently the LibDems have dominates. Some of the villages are good for the LDs too but the majority are Tory. The villages are where Ukip are gaining on the HS2 issue

  30. I think UKIP won’t do particularly well here compared to what some have been predicting on various websites. Although people are annoyed about HS2, the demographics of the constituency mean the Tories will go on winning easy majorities. They’re more likely to vote UKIP in local elections.

  31. I think I meant it wouldn’t be all that good for UKIP if it wasn’t for HS2, although it does have a slightly provincial feel in parts.
    A very desirable place to live for the most part.

    Some good analysis here.

  32. The Greens have announced a policy that would give at least £80/week to all, including all prisoners and asylum seekers. No wonder the anti-HS2 residents here are choosing UKIP rather than Natalie Bennett’s Party.

  33. A bit strange Labour didn’t get back into second here from 1997 (or 1992) onwards.
    They were in 1979.
    You wouldn’t really expect it to be ideal LD territory even for second place but perhaps people weren’t sure who the challenger was.

  34. By-election yesterday in Aylesbury Vale DC, Gatehouse ward.. Comps to 2011..

    LD Anders Christensen 295 [35.6%; -5.9%]

    UKIP 267 [32.2%; +15.2%]

    Conservative 113 [13.6%; -9.2%]

    Labour 113 [13.6%; -5%]

    Green 28 [3.4%; +3.4%]

    Independent 12 [1.4%; +1.4%]

    Majority: 28

    Turnout: 17.7%

  35. Oops.. and a LibDem gain from Labour on the same day… in Aylesbury Vale DC, Southcourt- 11 December 2014

    LD Peter Agoro 429 [42.3%; +6.3%]

    Labour 175 [17.2%; -12.2%]

    Conservative 112 [11%; -9.4%]

    Green 33 [3.3%; +3.3%]

    Majority: 254

    Turnout: 21%

    LD gain from Labour

  36. Hi, I’m Hugh. Long time reader, only a third-time poster. Hoping to do a lot more of it.

    Interesting that UKIP didn’t field a candidate in Southcourt – what with HS2 and other things Aylesbury/Aylesbury Vale is now prime territory for them (not that I think UKIP will necessarily win here next year, but they were either first or second in 13/17 wards in Aylesbury Vale for the 2013 CC elections):

    http://www.aylesburyvaledc.gov.uk/GetAsset.aspx?id=fAAxADMAMQA4ADMAfAB8AFQAcgB1AGUAfAB8ADAAfAA1

  37. UKIP did field a candidate in Southcourt and came second there also. Antiochian has neglected to include their vote for some reason

  38. Pete… I copied direct from the ALDC website… if you have the numbers please provide… apologies…

  39. UKIP got 266 (26.2%) in Southcourt

  40. That explains why the figures and percentages on the ALDC website looked distinctly odd.

  41. I am intrigued that the LibDems have not chosen a PPC here when the by-election results have been amongst the best in the country in recent times..

  42. Finally the LibDems have published a call for PPCs here… closing on the 15th of Feb..

  43. Steven Lambert chosen as LibDem PPC…. finally…

    Bucks CC Councillor for Coldharbour ward & Aylesbury West.

  44. Leaving it so late to select a candidate almost makes it seem they’ve given up any serious challenge and may be overtaken by other parties.

  45. I would have thought UKIP have a good chance of coming second here

  46. Farage is in this seat today and said he thinks UKIP can pull off a shock win.

    I seriously doubt it myself.

  47. Conservative Hold. 15,000 maj.

  48. This seat likes its Lib Dem candidates standing more than once, doesn’t it?

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