Aylesbury
2015 Result:
Conservative: 28083 (50.7%)
Labour: 8391 (15.1%)
Lib Dem: 5885 (10.6%)
Green: 2135 (3.9%)
UKIP: 10925 (19.7%)
MAJORITY: 17158 (31%)
Category: Very safe Conservative seat
Geography: South East, Buckinghamshire. Part of Aylesbury Vale council area and part of the Wycombe council area.
Main population centres: Aylesbury, Wendover, Stokenchurch.
Profile: Aylesbury constituency is tightly drawn around the prosperous town of Aylesbury itself to the North, but in the South widens to include a swathe of countryside around the Chiltern Hills (Coombe Hill, the highest point in the Chilterns, lies just South West of Wendover, near the Prime Minister`s country residence of Chequers), including small market towns and villages like Wendover, Stokenchurch and Great Missenden..
Politics: The seat was once the pocket borough of the Rothschild family, but has been Tory since 1924. Aylesbury itself has tended towards the Liberal Democrats, but the picturesque semi-rural commuter towns and villages to the South vote reliably Conservative and the seat as a whole normally has a substantial Conservative majority. In 2015 UKIP took second place, having campaigning on issue of HS2.
| Con: | 27736 (52%) |
| Lab: | 6695 (13%) |
| LDem: | 15118 (28%) |
| UKIP: | 3613 (7%) |
| MAJ: | 12618 (24%) |
| Con: | 25253 (49%) |
| Lab: | 9540 (19%) |
| LDem: | 14187 (28%) |
| UKIP: | 2479 (5%) |
| MAJ: | 11066 (22%) |
| Con: | 23230 (47%) |
| Lab: | 11388 (23%) |
| LDem: | 13221 (27%) |
| UKIP: | 1248 (3%) |
| MAJ: | 10009 (20%) |
| Con: | 25426 (44%) |
| Lab: | 12759 (22%) |
| LDem: | 17007 (30%) |
| Oth: | 166 (0%) |
| MAJ: | 8419 (15%) |
*There were boundary changes after 2005
BY-election yesterday: Grendon, Underwood and Brill (Con defence) on Aylesbury Vale
Result:
Conservative 326 (44% -11%),
Liberal Democrat 275 (37% +26%),
United Kingdom Independence Party 148 (20% -2%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 51 (7%) on a swing of 18.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat
What is the Lib Dem position on HS2?
(locally and nationally)
I think few conclusions can be drawn from such a very low turnout election. I am surprised that the poll took place two days before Christmas, as there is no urgency to fill the seat, as there would be if control of the council hinged on the result.
The Lib Dems actually got more votes than in May, so a decent performance for them.
Merry Christmas to all
There is certainly a pattern of the LDs doing particularly well in some local by-elections… I expect because they put more resources into them than CON and LAB do, rather than because there is a genuine surge in support for them. Very silly to read much into a few-hundred voters two days before Christmas though!
H Hemmelig
No doubt it’s entirely opportunisticly against here and pro In Manchester and Birmingham.
Grendon Underwood was a station on the old Great Central main line, so HS2 presumably passes through the ward or very close to it.
David Lidington gets Leader of the House. Previously Minister for Europe.
David Lidington has been designated first secretary of state and will be standing in for Theresa May at PMQs tomorrow:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/06/david-lidington-v-emily-thornberry-mps-prepare-to-watch-b-team-at-pmqs
Strange decision, though I can understand why she didn’t give it to Phillip Hammond. Surely Boris Johnson would have been the natural choice for a stand-in?
Leader of the House of Commons – not the strangest idea.
Maybe a bit more low key tomorrow and some actual answers to questions – you never know.
To be pedantic (sorry) there is currently no First Secretary of State. Where this has been the case in the past the Leader of the House has often taken PMQs so this is not without precedent. I imagine Lidington will actually been rather good at it – he’s quick on his feet, unlike both May and Corbyn, and dealt well with hostile questioning during his six years as Minister for Europe, often being sent out to fend off the latest round of Eurosceptic outrage at something or other from the Tory backbenches.
That Emily Thornberry is leading for Labour is a bit more extraordinary. But I guess they wanted a woman and Valerie Vaz (current Shadow Leader of the House) is considered too inexperienced. Tom Watson presumably doesn’t fancy it – Angela Eagle led for Labour vs George Osborne when she was still in the shadow cabinet.
Agree with the above post. May will want a safe pair of hands standing in for her who will avoid making any off-message remarks about Brexit, which rules out Boris.
Quite rare for UKIP to have got 20% in such an affluent seat in 2015.
Not sure if this was purely a HS2 effect.
David Lidington is the new Justice Secretary and Lord Chancellor.
As there appears to be some possibility of David Liddington becoming (interim) Prime Minister in a few days time, I thought I’d post something on this page.
Good to at least know what he looks like.
Seems unlikely as brexiters don’t want him – unless they rather have him and the leadership election in the summer.
This would be as an interim measure, with a proper contest to follow. Lidington and Gove are currently roughly equal favourites as next PM with the bookies.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister
I can’t think when Britain last had a caretaker Prime Minister. Does Alec Douglas-Home count?
Liddington is too much of a nice guy to be an effective Tory leader – caretaker or not – particularly at this juncture where you require somebody with considerably thicker skin
Coupled with the mass disapproval of the ERG wing that such an appointment would cause, I don’t see much merit in this proposal beyond the fact that it’s inevitable that he won’t be quite as incompetent as May
And would Liddington even want the job? Everything from what we seem to know about his character and personality would suggest not