Ashfield

2015 Result:
Conservative: 10628 (22.4%)
Labour: 19448 (41%)
Lib Dem: 7030 (14.8%)
UKIP: 10150 (21.4%)
Others: 153 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 8820 (18.6%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: East Midlands, Nottinghamshire. The Ashfield council area and part of the Broxtowe council area.

Main population centres: Sutton-in-Ashfield, Kirkby in Ashfield, Eastwood.

Profile: Ashfield is a former mining consituency in West Nottinghamshire. With the closure of the mines came the economic difficulties often associated with the decline of the mining industry, and the area is now gradually transitioning towards being more of a commuter area for Nottingham. The area was aligned with the Union of Democratic Mineworkers during the 1980s miners strike.

Politics: Ashfield has a history of being a very safe Labour area, though it was briefly held by the Conservatives in the 1970s after a by-election win and became a marginal at the height of Tory popularity in the 1980s, and at the height of Lib Dem popularity in 2010. In 2015 Labour re-established their strong lead in the seat with the Liberal Democrats dropping to third place.


Current MP
GLORIA DE PIERO (Labour) Born 1972, Bradford. Educated at Yorkshire Martyrs Catholic College and University of Central England. Former political correspondent for GMTV. First elected as MP for Ashfield in 2010. Shadow Minister for Women 2013-2015. Shadow Minister for Young people since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 10698 (22%)
Lab: 16239 (34%)
LDem: 16047 (33%)
BNP: 2781 (6%)
Oth: 2431 (5%)
MAJ: 192 (0%)
2005*
Con: 10220 (24%)
Lab: 20433 (49%)
LDem: 5829 (14%)
Oth: 5569 (13%)
MAJ: 10213 (24%)
2001
Con: 9607 (24%)
Lab: 22875 (58%)
LDem: 4428 (11%)
Oth: 2440 (6%)
MAJ: 13268 (34%)
1997
Con: 10251 (20%)
Lab: 32979 (65%)
LDem: 4882 (10%)
Oth: 595 (1%)
MAJ: 22728 (45%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
HELEN HARRISON (Conservative) Educated at Our Lady and Pope John School and Liverpool University. Physiotherapist.
GLORIA DE PIERO (Labour) See above.
PHILIP SMITH (Liberal Democrat)
SIMON ASHCROFT (UKIP) Business consultant.
MIKE BUCHANAN (Justice for Men and Boys) Born 1957. Writer and publisher.
Links
Comments - 325 Responses on “Ashfield”
  1. Excuse the capitals, THE should have been “the”

  2. With respect, you are significantly understating the seriousness of what has happened to Zadrozny

    http://www.chad.co.uk/news/crime/breaking-news-ashfield-mp-hopeful-jason-zadrozny-arrested-over-historic-child-sex-abuse-claims-1-7177444

    I think we can safely assume that this will be a very comfortable Labour hold now

  3. Will the Lib Dems be able to get another candidate in place in time?

  4. ”I think we can safely assume that this will be a very comfortable Labour hold now!”

    Altough I don’t want to downgrade the seriousness of these allegations twoards Zadronzny, I bet De Piero and Labour HQ are breathing a sigh of relief now as this may have been a shock Lib Dem gain!

    I think a Labour hold of about 5000 is on the cards now!

  5. In campaign terms, this also puts pressure on Amber Valley and Sherwood since it frees up much of Ashfield CLP’s campaigners and resources.

  6. Ashfield BNP made allegations of paedophilia against Zadrozny some time prior to the last GE, but they were dismissed by police. It seems therefore that he is joining the long list of well known people to fall victim to the police taking these things more seriously post-Savile.

  7. Though it’s important to reiterate that Zadrozny is innocent till proven guilty, it does highlight how the Lib Dems have not learned their lesson from Rennard and Hancock. As I said above, these allegations are not new and have been swirling around Ashfield for nearly a decade. The Lib Dems reaction is to put their fingers in their ears and allow him to fight one of their most winnable target seats without any credicble investigation.

  8. These allegations where made a number of years ago and have been discussed by local council members. However this has not stopped them working together. I have been led to belive my local independant councilor and the libdem candidate have had meetings regarding the next general election.
    She should choose her friends better in the futre should these allegations be proved true.

  9. Although it’s perhaps bad taste to talk about who will benefit from this, I don’t think UKIP will be too unhappy with this development. They may get second place now.

  10. It’s unpleasant, but it’s the purpose of the site. I happen to agree, although De Piero and the Tories will benefit as well.

  11. The Lib Dems in Ashfield are a one-man band so it is highly possible that they will collapse behind UKIP now

  12. Probably their biggest vote share drop of the election.

  13. He’s withdrawn as LibDem PPC for those who haven’t heard. It will be interesting whether police arrest any other PPCs or MPs (of whom some of us are aware police are investigating) before Polling Day. I’d imagine they’ll have to be before close of nominations or after May 7th. [Before anyone asks I won’t name any MPs/PPCs/Cllrs and Exaro News has published the most that can be without harming any potential prosecutions]

  14. Bit odd to hear the phrase “historic” being used for someone who’s only 34.

  15. Andy JS,

    I still expect that to be Hallam or one of the Scottish seats – further to fall.

  16. I imagine they’ll get someone in place in time for the election, but this must be a huge letdown for the LDs. I imagine tears are being shed by Ashfield LD activists today.

  17. This is an easy UKIP second, there is no Conservative party in Ashfield, and UKIP are fighting hard here. 2020 will be interesting with LD and Tory tactical voters wanting Ed and SNP out.

  18. Well that’s a bit of a shock, I always thought the Lib Dems would keep this close-ish, I expected Di Piero to win by about 6000.

    Will probably win by a larger margin with the Lib Dems falling into 3rd of 4th.

  19. The new Lib Dem candidate to replace Jason Zadrozny is Philip Smith, who previously stood in Mansfield in 1997, and where he is a long-serving councillor-
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-32158818

  20. So what are people’s thoughts as to what might happen here now that Zadrozny has gone?

  21. Very roughly:
    Labour 40
    UKIP/LD about 20 each?
    Con a bit less than that, maybe 15

  22. Then again, I wouldn’t be all that shocked if this was the sort of seat that the Lib Dem vote evaporated massively.

  23. If the Lib Dem base collapses here, it certainly opens the door for UKIP as the main opposition.

  24. After what has happened, this seat could go from one where the Lib Dems looked likely to stay in touch in 2020 until recently to them absolutely collapsing in a heap just like that literally.

  25. The local party here is clearly organised so I think could retain second place – it could well depend on how much coverage Zadrozny’s arrest got in the news

  26. That sounds sensible. Whether they’ve lost all chance of ever winning this remains to be seen in future elections though I think.

  27. Zadrozny is standing again for the council as non description. LDs not fielding a candidate in his ward though

  28. The ‘Portsmouth strategy’…

  29. Labour Hold. 8,000 majority. Lib Dems collapsing to 4th place behind both Tories and UKIP.

  30. Didn’t expect De Piero to increase her majority beyond 5,000 or so. Decent result.

  31. Zadrozny easily re-elected on the Council

    I believe De Piero worked pretty hard in the last month. Or at least, unlike other high profile Labourites (with bigger majorities), she spent the whole campaign here without visiting other seats.

  32. She’s another MP who comes across as likeable. The fact labour failed to use people like Gloria to their advantage is part of the reason why they failed.

  33. Gloria for leader?

  34. I take it the Lib Dems will probably fall back again here in 2020?

  35. I wouldn’t rule out the Lib Dems coming back here one day, but in the short term I think this seat is probably beyond them for the timebeing at least.

  36. I think the Lib Dems have had it in this seat.

  37. I agree. This was always a bizarre seat for the LD’s to do well in. I wonder if the result here will be similar to NE Derbyshire after the next election?

  38. Might the Tories recover here in the long-term enough to actually challenge for the seat?

  39. The only reason that the Lib Dems did well in 2010 is because De Piero was parachuted into this seat having no local connections. Now that she’s established herself here, I don’t think they stand a chance. Maybe UKIP will get 2nd place in 2020, depending on who Labour elect as leader.

  40. It is difficult to see a Government seeking a third term winning this seat unless something very unusual is happening nationally.

    My guess is that UKIP are a stronger threat even if they are currently just in third place, 478 votes behind the Tories.

    Gloria De Piero is used to a hard fight here and she will be hoping to go on splitting her opposition.

  41. There are a lot of seats like this where the UKIP/Con votes against Labour are evenly divided as discussed on the Stoke N thread. I could see UKIP getting 2nd here next time if extra LD and ex Con protest votes transfer across to UKIP but don’t see them exceeding 25-30%.

    I think Gloria De Piero will probably retain this with at least 40% over a divided opposition for as long she wants it.

    I’m not sure if she has any shadow ministerial future as a Liz Kendall/Blairite supporter (unless possibly Cooper wins) but she is at least more personable/reserved than some others in that camp.

  42. Anybody want to take a guess what Ashfield would have looked like without Zadrozny and the LD surge?

  43. Well the result here this time with the Tories moving back into second place would appear to suggest that in 2010 without Zadrozny and the Lib Dem progress locally the Tories might have had a swing in their favour similar to neighbouring Mansfield, but the Labour majority might have been about 3-4000. I also think any Lib Dem increase without their incessant local campaigning machine would have only been about 4% at best in 2010. I think the result here in May actually ‘corrected’ the huge idiosyncratic swing Zadrozny got five years ago, to restore the seat to near enough its natural state before the Lib Dems ever really figured locally, though they do still remain above their vote share levels at the four general elections before Zadrozny’s incredible result in 2010.

  44. Hypothsize that Jeremy Corbyn wins the Labour leadership and that as a result Labour loses 50% of its vote, and that 50% of this lost vote goes to UKIP. This seems to me a far from unlikely scenario in seats like this with a large white working-class vote.

    This shift would put Labour on 26% and UKIP on 34%, with UKIP winning. The caveat, however, is where the 25% of the Labour vote that did not go UKIP would go. If it all went to the Tories they would win.

    A big question is how far UKIP and hold onto, and increase, its vote in the considerable number of seats won by Labour and where UKIP got a considerable vote but were narrowly piiped to second place by the Tories. The scenario I am envisaging in this post looks reasonable for seats where UKIP is second, like say Rotherham or South Shields, but my be a more difficult ask where UKIP came third.

    A considerable amount will dpend on whether UKIP can build support at local level, not lest in terms of council representation, between now and 2020. They will need to find sound local representatives who will not slip on banana skins.

    It is quuite possible that Mansfield will be a tight four-way marginal in 2020.

  45. What’s the point in writing exactly the same thing on 10 threads simultaneously?

  46. The point is that the seats concerned are different. For instance, UKIP are in third place here whereas in South Shields, where I have also just posted, UKIP have a not dissimilar share of the vote but came second.

  47. I don’t really know if the Lib Dems will ever come back in this seat without Jason Zadrozny TBH- Perhaps if they still do the work locally with what councillors they do have they can recover some of the lost votes to at least reclaim second place and wait a few elections before being able to really challenge again. But they might decline in the long-run here now they’ve had their highpoint locally and this might return to being a safe Labour seat by default, by dint of the opposition to Gloria De Piero being heavily split between the Tories, UKIP and the Lib Dems.

  48. I didn’t realise Zadrozny still stood at the council level and apparently did very well.

    http://www.chad.co.uk/news/local/labour-retain-control-of-ashfield-district-council-but-zadrozny-wins-1-7252417

    His last comment that he had not been charged is interesting as here we are many months after the election and even more since he was arrested and still no charges… what is going on here? Either he did something or did not..

    If no charges are laid this is looks like extremely poor behaviour by the police and coming on top of arrests of a Tory MP for supposed sexual assault that then were dropped it leaves one wondering what is the motivation for arrests without charges of politicians.

    In light of the resounding council result though one wonders whether the voters don’t believe the charges had grounds. And by the police silence neither do they!

  49. You’ve done it again!

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