Ashfield

2015 Result:
Conservative: 10628 (22.4%)
Labour: 19448 (41%)
Lib Dem: 7030 (14.8%)
UKIP: 10150 (21.4%)
Others: 153 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 8820 (18.6%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: East Midlands, Nottinghamshire. The Ashfield council area and part of the Broxtowe council area.

Main population centres: Sutton-in-Ashfield, Kirkby in Ashfield, Eastwood.

Profile: Ashfield is a former mining consituency in West Nottinghamshire. With the closure of the mines came the economic difficulties often associated with the decline of the mining industry, and the area is now gradually transitioning towards being more of a commuter area for Nottingham. The area was aligned with the Union of Democratic Mineworkers during the 1980s miners strike.

Politics: Ashfield has a history of being a very safe Labour area, though it was briefly held by the Conservatives in the 1970s after a by-election win and became a marginal at the height of Tory popularity in the 1980s, and at the height of Lib Dem popularity in 2010. In 2015 Labour re-established their strong lead in the seat with the Liberal Democrats dropping to third place.


Current MP
GLORIA DE PIERO (Labour) Born 1972, Bradford. Educated at Yorkshire Martyrs Catholic College and University of Central England. Former political correspondent for GMTV. First elected as MP for Ashfield in 2010. Shadow Minister for Women 2013-2015. Shadow Minister for Young people since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 10698 (22%)
Lab: 16239 (34%)
LDem: 16047 (33%)
BNP: 2781 (6%)
Oth: 2431 (5%)
MAJ: 192 (0%)
2005*
Con: 10220 (24%)
Lab: 20433 (49%)
LDem: 5829 (14%)
Oth: 5569 (13%)
MAJ: 10213 (24%)
2001
Con: 9607 (24%)
Lab: 22875 (58%)
LDem: 4428 (11%)
Oth: 2440 (6%)
MAJ: 13268 (34%)
1997
Con: 10251 (20%)
Lab: 32979 (65%)
LDem: 4882 (10%)
Oth: 595 (1%)
MAJ: 22728 (45%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
HELEN HARRISON (Conservative) Educated at Our Lady and Pope John School and Liverpool University. Physiotherapist.
GLORIA DE PIERO (Labour) See above.
PHILIP SMITH (Liberal Democrat)
SIMON ASHCROFT (UKIP) Business consultant.
MIKE BUCHANAN (Justice for Men and Boys) Born 1957. Writer and publisher.
Links
Comments - 325 Responses on “Ashfield”
  1. ‘She has pre-empted herself losing the seat next time.’

    That was only likely if a general election were to take place before Brexit – which Johnson has already ruled out

  2. I was alluding more to the facts that her ex-sec is now the Tory PPC here and the fact that she only just clung on last time.

  3. The Labour selection here has been announced as an Open shortlist, contrary to the usual practice of Women replaced by women.

  4. @BM11

    I think it is AWS here along with Blyth Valley, Durham City, Poplar & Limehouse and Erith & Thamesmead.

  5. Yes BM11 has been misinformed

  6. That the Tories are favourites here at the next election just underlines how badly Corbyn performs with what was once Labour’s core vote – WWC

    There’s no way the Tories should even be remotely competitive in an impoverished, run down, post industrial seat like this one

  7. Given Labour had their best result amongst ABC1 and the Tories their best amongst C2DE, throw in Jason Zardonys hammering of Labour here. Is it any surprise

  8. Quite. Anyone who still thinks “poor = Labour, middle-class = Conservative” clearly hasn’t been paying attention to British politics at all.

    In a way, it is a good thing that people in this country are voting more according to values & beliefs rather than perceived self-interest; but this newly principled electorate is a problem for the old political class, as they are largely immune to the techniques that managerial politicians have used to quell awkward constituencies – triangulation and electoral bribery.

  9. ‘Anyone who still thinks “poor = Labour, middle-class = Conservative” clearly hasn’t been paying attention to British politics at all.’

    Maybe but was can Boris Johnson and his cabinet of southern millionaires offer those in seats like this

    My guess would be f*** all and really if such people want to vote for them, that’s a good thing too

  10. Tbf it’s the first time we’ve had State school Home Secretary, Foreign Secretary and Chancellor in years.

    Contrast that with public school Corbyn, McDonnell and foot-in-mouth Thornberry.

    Whilst there are, of course, still wealthy MPs in Govt, most of the millionaires – from Alan Duncan to Grayling – were in fact sacked by Boris for younger MPs. This is after May sacked a dozen from GO to Sir Hugo in Devon on her arrival. The peak of wealthy MPs in Govt was under Cameron. It’s why the Hon Ed Vaizey (baronet) hates the Govt so much. The wealthy Wets no longer run the Party and Cummings clearly hates them and isn’t shy about saying so and why.

  11. Dominic Cummings hated the “wealthy wets” but not for the reason you imply. Dominic Cummings hates everyone who isn’t Dominic Cummings for being insufficiently like Dominic Cummings.

    As for clearing out the millionaires – just remind me again, who put Jacob Rees-Mogg in the cabinet?

  12. Ladbrokes have released some seat betting…

  13. Some surprising prices here:
    ASHFIELD INDEPENDENTS …EVENS
    CON 7/4
    LAB 7/2

  14. I’m pretty sceptical of this. Several places have long been dominated by independents or residents’ forums at the local level, those groups have rarely got beyond 10% in general elections.

  15. Tbf Jason Zardoznys outfit just got 60% in May and 30 seats from no where and the man himself was 150 votes from being an MP in 2010

  16. Must admit this took my fancy I had my usual pocket money bet (£4 on each) for Lab and Con here at those prices.

    Could this just be down to someone putting a ton of money on Ashfield independents just to made them look like they have a chance or is there some genuine groundswell in the area?

    Well obviously Matt Wilson partly answers this but the 2010 result was standing for Lib Dems pre-austerity and this is a national election with big party machines.

  17. I feel that’s smart, but certainly will be keeping an eye on Jay-Z.

    IIRC James Graham is from Ashfield, if he wins we’ll almost certainly be getting a play about it at some point…

  18. I was back here last weekend. Zadrozny’s campaign is certainly cutting through to the voters. The problem is that his “independents” mostly get votes from anti-Labour voters who overwhelmingly voted Tory/UKIP/BNP in 2017/2015 (though he himself is a former Lib Dem). As Labour will retain a tribal vote of 40% or so no matter what, Zadrozny’s only chance is to reduce the Tory and BXP vote to almost nothing. Given Boris’ popularity in strong Leave seats and the fact that this is a GE, that hardly seems likely.

    Hence IMO, the most likely impact of Zadrozny standing will be to ruin the Tories’ chance of a gain.

  19. This seat must have some of the strangest political dynamics in the UK?

    You’ve got the Tory candidate who used to be Gloria De Piero’s constituency office manager. I see this week he’s been saying that bad tenants should be made to work in labour camps. Makes you wonder what he was doing working for a Labour MP.

    Then you’ve got this Jason Zadrozny who is an ex-Liberal Democrat now claiming to be the only Leave supporting candidate who can beat Labour. And he’s representing an ‘independent’ group who have just cleaned up in the last local election.

  20. Fair comment, but I don’t see Zadrozny’s USP. There is no burning local issue here, like eg the hospital closure that got Dr Richard Taylor elected, or the sleaze that got Martin Bell elected. If you are focused on Brexit you can vote Tory or the Brexit party. There is a core Labour vote of 40% or so that will be voting on the usual memes of NHS, benefits, public services etc. Also, given the nastiness of politics here in recent years, expect Zadrozny’s court case and sexuality to be brought up on the doorsteps, if only in whispers. The Tories selecting de Piero’s former office manager does look, from the outside, a really daft decision.

  21. Labour candidate Natalie Fleet interviewed in The Guardian:

    “I grew up hearing the horror stories of the things the Tories had done to our town,” she says. “My mum worked in a factory that’s now been demolished. My male relatives worked down the pits that are now closed. The Tories did that, and our seat is at risk of being lost to them. We need to have the best possible chance of winning here.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2019/nov/21/im-not-going-to-be-bullied-into-silence-the-women-defying-abuse-to-stand-as-mps

    Someone needs to break it to her that the last coal mine in Ashfield (Annesley-Bentinck) was closed under Tony Blair in 1998. And that most of the textile factories in the constituency also closed under the Blair government, probably including the one her mum worked at. And that a lot of pits locally closed under Harold Wilson, and a few under Callaghan.

    Labour is still playing the “everything was Thatcher’s fault” tune even though candidates like this are too young to remember the more nuanced truth. No surprise the public has started to see through it.

  22. Labour will continue repeating “it’s Thatcher’s fault” as long as the Tories drone on about how awful the seventies were.

    British politics, as currently constructed, is not built for a world as rapidly changing as the one we live in.

  23. Yes there is something in that

  24. I think Hemmelig considerably overestimates the labour core remaining here. Suspect their vote will be in the 20s this time around.

  25. Possibly – more likely if Labour national share is 32 rather than 35 or 36.

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