Ashfield

2015 Result:
Conservative: 10628 (22.4%)
Labour: 19448 (41%)
Lib Dem: 7030 (14.8%)
UKIP: 10150 (21.4%)
Others: 153 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 8820 (18.6%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: East Midlands, Nottinghamshire. The Ashfield council area and part of the Broxtowe council area.

Main population centres: Sutton-in-Ashfield, Kirkby in Ashfield, Eastwood.

Profile: Ashfield is a former mining consituency in West Nottinghamshire. With the closure of the mines came the economic difficulties often associated with the decline of the mining industry, and the area is now gradually transitioning towards being more of a commuter area for Nottingham. The area was aligned with the Union of Democratic Mineworkers during the 1980s miners strike.

Politics: Ashfield has a history of being a very safe Labour area, though it was briefly held by the Conservatives in the 1970s after a by-election win and became a marginal at the height of Tory popularity in the 1980s, and at the height of Lib Dem popularity in 2010. In 2015 Labour re-established their strong lead in the seat with the Liberal Democrats dropping to third place.


Current MP
GLORIA DE PIERO (Labour) Born 1972, Bradford. Educated at Yorkshire Martyrs Catholic College and University of Central England. Former political correspondent for GMTV. First elected as MP for Ashfield in 2010. Shadow Minister for Women 2013-2015. Shadow Minister for Young people since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 10698 (22%)
Lab: 16239 (34%)
LDem: 16047 (33%)
BNP: 2781 (6%)
Oth: 2431 (5%)
MAJ: 192 (0%)
2005*
Con: 10220 (24%)
Lab: 20433 (49%)
LDem: 5829 (14%)
Oth: 5569 (13%)
MAJ: 10213 (24%)
2001
Con: 9607 (24%)
Lab: 22875 (58%)
LDem: 4428 (11%)
Oth: 2440 (6%)
MAJ: 13268 (34%)
1997
Con: 10251 (20%)
Lab: 32979 (65%)
LDem: 4882 (10%)
Oth: 595 (1%)
MAJ: 22728 (45%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
HELEN HARRISON (Conservative) Educated at Our Lady and Pope John School and Liverpool University. Physiotherapist.
GLORIA DE PIERO (Labour) See above.
PHILIP SMITH (Liberal Democrat)
SIMON ASHCROFT (UKIP) Business consultant.
MIKE BUCHANAN (Justice for Men and Boys) Born 1957. Writer and publisher.
Links
Comments - 277 Responses on “Ashfield”
  1. Its to confuse the enemy….

  2. If Labour goes into meltdoen this could become a very tight, and I suspect bitter, fight between Labour and all of the Conservatives, LibDems and UKIP.

  3. To what extent are the following seats moving towards the Tories (if indeed they are):

    Ashfield
    Bassetlaw
    Bolsover
    Mansfield
    North East Derbyshire

  4. With its 20 member branch in Ashfield having to be merged with the Mansfield branch.. I think the answer is obvious..

  5. My comment isn’t that ridiculous if I’m honest.

    North East Derbyshire looks like it could quite easily be a Con gain in 2020 and has moved spectacularly towards the Tories since 1997 like Newcastle Under Lyme.

    I admit Bolsover will probably not be Tory for a few decades yet, if ever.

    My main point is that demographic changes are going to see reduced Labour majorities and Con gains in the future. The old mining demographic is being replaced gradually by commuters and professionals.

  6. Your comment isn’t ridiculous at all. I don’t know the areas but I would have thought that the simple fact that the mining industry has all but died out….plus with over 30 years having passed since the miner’s strike…..just the reduction in visceral anti-Toryism alone would have a marginally beneficial effect.

    I have driven up to a friend in Huddersfield a few times via the A1, and then cut across the a57 past Worksop. I’ve been struck by the amount of new development in what I believe to be a relatively Labour area of Bassetlaw…it’s over simplistic I appreciate to equate new development with an increased Tory vote, but it’s unlikely to harm it.

  7. I personally think the demographic trends towards Labour away from the Tories in cities are equally matched and in some cases outweighed by the decline of the Labour vote in the former mining seats.
    It’s hard to believe the Labour majority in Sedgefield was less than 7000 given how reliable it has generally been since 1935.

    I think there are many seats that are swinging towards the Tories in this way. I also think that soon the Tories will be unrepresented in most of the urban centres and Labour unrepresented largely in the rural areas (including former mining seats). That’s certainly the way I think things are going.

  8. The new Labour Party members are probably concentratedd largely in selected seats, for instance in London, inner cities and university seats. I cannot see all that many feminist fanatics hanging out in places like Ashfield.

    It is far from impossible that the Tories, or perhaps UKIP, could take this seat even while Labour is making yet more gains in London.

    I don’t know the local dmographics in detail, but I suspect that Bolsover is likely to be abolished or redistributed until ithe constituency becomes almost unrecognisable. In any case, Dennis Skinner may not be able to pass all his vote onto his successor.

  9. “I also think that soon the Tories will be unrepresented in most of the urban centres and Labour unrepresented largely in the rural areas (including former mining seats)” – that wouldn’t surprise me at all. Am I right in thinking that’s more or less the case in Australia (Labor in cities, Liberal/National in rural areas with elections decided in the suburbs)?

  10. I don’t know about consitutency politics in Australia, but Labour in the UK appears to be following some of their counterparts abroad where Labour has become a middle-class, somewhat right of centre, party.

  11. Perhaps I could add that Australia now has absolutely huge coal mines in the middle of nowhere, largely exporting to China. However, they are very heavily mechanised so I doubt how politically significant their work forces are.

  12. Apparently Jason Zadrozny and two LibDem councillors have gone off to “start their own party”..

  13. Are Zadrozny’s legal issues resolved?

  14. Simon- you appeared to gave commented on an English seat. ENGLAND.

    Kindly rush back, before the witch Nicola canes your fat ar*e.

  15. The lib dems no longer have any councillors in the Ashfield council area as they have all joined the Ashfield Independents.

  16. ‘Nottinghamshire Councillor charged with a number of sex offences’

    http://www.nottinghamshire.police.uk/blog/2016-02-29/nottinghamshire-councillor-charged-number-sex-offences

  17. Ashfield — 70% Leave.

  18. Gloria De Piero has resigned as Shadow Minister for Young People and Voter Registration

  19. Another one of these Labour seats where the opposition is evenly split, like the following:

    Dagenham and Rainham
    Don Valley
    Mansfield
    Penistone and Stocksbridge
    Rother Valley
    Stoke-on-Trent Central
    Stoke-on-Trent North

  20. By historical standards in this seat, Lib Dem did very well – not many seats that they didn’t already hold that they produced a 2015 result at least as good as 2005.

    Which ties up with earlier reports of their having a popular enthusiastic candidate locally, and some rapid development of strength. Though with hindsight, 2015 was of course never going to be their year. If they’re sensible, they will be continuing to work it as we speak.

  21. Whose vote crumbles here, Tory or UKIP?

  22. I wonder how many (anti-Labour) tactical votes were wasted on Lib Dems here in 2015, and if Conservatives will be the main beneficiaries of them (though Lib Dem-UKIP switching is more common than often given credit for, too).

  23. The Tories got 28% in neighbouring Mansfield, they should have a higher ceiling here.

  24. @Plopwellian Tory

    Probably. If the Lib Dem vote crumbles away to nothing (from tactical unwind) the Tories could probably get in to the high 20s here.

  25. It should do, this seat isn’t that different from Mansfield (I guess?) and there’s no reason to say my party couldn’t get 28%+ here in future.

    Mansfield will be the better prospect for a Tory gain in future though, Gedling is sharply trending Lab.

  26. Ashfield and Mansfield had pretty similar results in 1992, I believe.

  27. I should think the Conservatives have a shot at taking Mansfield next time.

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