Arundel & South Downs

2015 Result:
Conservative: 34331 (60.8%)
Labour: 6324 (11.2%)
Lib Dem: 4062 (7.2%)
Green: 3606 (6.4%)
UKIP: 8154 (14.4%)
MAJORITY: 26177 (46.3%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, West Sussex. Parts of Chichester, Horsham, Arun and Mid Sussex council areas.

Main population centres: Arundel, Petworth, Henfield, Hurstpierpoint, Pulborough, Steyning, Barnham, Walberton, Hassocks, Ashington.

Profile: Arundel and South Downs is a sprawling Sussex constituency making up much of the rural interior of West Sussex once the coastal towns of Bognor, Worthing and Hove have been carved out into their own constituencies. The seat contains parts of four different local authorities and is made up of picturesque rural villages with no industry of note. Arundel itself, and the castle of the same name, is the historic seat of the Dukes of Norfolk.

Politics: A very safe Conservative seat, it became prominent during the 2005 election campaign when the then Conservative MP Howard Flight was secret recorded telling a meeting that the Conservative party would make larger cuts in spending than it had announced. He had the whip withdrawn and, despite threatened legal challenges, eventually stood down as the Conservative candidate.


Current MP
NICK HERBERT (Conservative) Born 1963. Educated at Haileybury and Oxford University. Former director of public affairs for the British Field Sports Society, chief executive of Business for Sterling and head of the free market think tank Reform. Contested Berwick-upon-Tweed 1997. First elected as MP for Arundel and South Downs in 2005. Shadow justice secretary 2007-2009, shadow environment secretary 2009-2010. Minister of State for police and criminal justice 2010-2012. Herbert was, along with Alan Duncan who had come out during the previous Parliament, one of the first two openly gay Conservative MPs elected in 2005.
Past Results
2010
Con: 32333 (58%)
Lab: 4835 (9%)
LDem: 15642 (28%)
UKIP: 3172 (6%)
MAJ: 16691 (30%)
2005*
Con: 24752 (50%)
Lab: 8482 (17%)
LDem: 13443 (27%)
UKIP: 2700 (5%)
Oth: 313 (1%)
MAJ: 11309 (23%)
2001
Con: 23969 (52%)
Lab: 9488 (21%)
LDem: 10265 (22%)
UKIP: 2167 (5%)
MAJ: 13704 (30%)
1997
Con: 27251 (53%)
Lab: 9376 (18%)
LDem: 13216 (26%)
Oth: 1494 (3%)
MAJ: 14035 (27%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
NICK HERBERT (Conservative) See above.
CHRISTOPHER WELLBELOVE (Labour)
SHWETA KAPADIA (Liberal Democrat)
PETER GRACE (UKIP)
ISABEL THURSTON (Green)
Links
Comments - No Responses on “Arundel & South Downs”
  1. By-election yesterday in Angmering ward for Arun DC. Unsurprisingly the Tory won with 63%; it’s a solid Tory area. More interesting is that Labour – traditionally a poor third here, when they can even muster a candidate – overtook the Lib Dems for second place.

    I suspect this will be the general pattern in Tory seats in the south. Sadly, it won’t help Labour, merely hand a few Lib Dem seats to the Tories.

  2. Most unusually, the Tory vote in this seat remained at 50% plus even during the 1997 and 2001 dark days. It’s always struck me as a little odd how the Tory vote in ultra-safe Tory seats like this one often seems to stick at between 55-58% maximum, even in a good Tory year.

    Interesting about the by-election result: it must be a long time since Labour were the runners up in Angmering. The Labour vote in neighbouring Worthing went up quite sharply in the 2011 local elections, but that rise has not been sustained and has been choked off by UKIP since 2012.

  3. Another armed robber with a life sentence is on the run from an open prison. He escaped from Ford prison in this constituency:

    http://news.sky.com/story/1281272/armed-robber-on-the-run-from-open-prison

  4. What joy to live in one of the most predictable seats in the country (last post 13th July).

    Feels more like Airbed and Eider Downs.

    Zzzzzzzzzzz

  5. Conservative Hold. 20,000 maj.

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