Arundel & South Downs
2015 Result:
Conservative: 34331 (60.8%)
Labour: 6324 (11.2%)
Lib Dem: 4062 (7.2%)
Green: 3606 (6.4%)
UKIP: 8154 (14.4%)
MAJORITY: 26177 (46.3%)
Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat
Geography: South East, West Sussex. Parts of Chichester, Horsham, Arun and Mid Sussex council areas.
Main population centres: Arundel, Petworth, Henfield, Hurstpierpoint, Pulborough, Steyning, Barnham, Walberton, Hassocks, Ashington.
Profile: Arundel and South Downs is a sprawling Sussex constituency making up much of the rural interior of West Sussex once the coastal towns of Bognor, Worthing and Hove have been carved out into their own constituencies. The seat contains parts of four different local authorities and is made up of picturesque rural villages with no industry of note. Arundel itself, and the castle of the same name, is the historic seat of the Dukes of Norfolk.
Politics: A very safe Conservative seat, it became prominent during the 2005 election campaign when the then Conservative MP Howard Flight was secret recorded telling a meeting that the Conservative party would make larger cuts in spending than it had announced. He had the whip withdrawn and, despite threatened legal challenges, eventually stood down as the Conservative candidate.
| Con: | 32333 (58%) |
| Lab: | 4835 (9%) |
| LDem: | 15642 (28%) |
| UKIP: | 3172 (6%) |
| MAJ: | 16691 (30%) |
| Con: | 24752 (50%) |
| Lab: | 8482 (17%) |
| LDem: | 13443 (27%) |
| UKIP: | 2700 (5%) |
| Oth: | 313 (1%) |
| MAJ: | 11309 (23%) |
| Con: | 23969 (52%) |
| Lab: | 9488 (21%) |
| LDem: | 10265 (22%) |
| UKIP: | 2167 (5%) |
| MAJ: | 13704 (30%) |
| Con: | 27251 (53%) |
| Lab: | 9376 (18%) |
| LDem: | 13216 (26%) |
| Oth: | 1494 (3%) |
| MAJ: | 14035 (27%) |
*There were boundary changes after 2005
By-election yesterday in Angmering ward for Arun DC. Unsurprisingly the Tory won with 63%; it’s a solid Tory area. More interesting is that Labour – traditionally a poor third here, when they can even muster a candidate – overtook the Lib Dems for second place.
I suspect this will be the general pattern in Tory seats in the south. Sadly, it won’t help Labour, merely hand a few Lib Dem seats to the Tories.
Most unusually, the Tory vote in this seat remained at 50% plus even during the 1997 and 2001 dark days. It’s always struck me as a little odd how the Tory vote in ultra-safe Tory seats like this one often seems to stick at between 55-58% maximum, even in a good Tory year.
Interesting about the by-election result: it must be a long time since Labour were the runners up in Angmering. The Labour vote in neighbouring Worthing went up quite sharply in the 2011 local elections, but that rise has not been sustained and has been choked off by UKIP since 2012.
Another armed robber with a life sentence is on the run from an open prison. He escaped from Ford prison in this constituency:
http://news.sky.com/story/1281272/armed-robber-on-the-run-from-open-prison
Another report:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-27828845
What joy to live in one of the most predictable seats in the country (last post 13th July).
Feels more like Airbed and Eider Downs.
Zzzzzzzzzzz
Conservative Hold. 20,000 maj.