Angus

2015 Result:
Conservative: 12900 (29%)
Labour: 3919 (8.8%)
Lib Dem: 1216 (2.7%)
SNP: 24130 (54.2%)
Green: 965 (2.2%)
UKIP: 1355 (3%)
MAJORITY: 11230 (25.2%)

Category: Very safe SNP seat

Geography: Scotland, North East. The whole of the Angus council area.

Main population centres: Forfar,Kirriemuir, Brechin, Montrose, Arbroath.

Profile: A large Scottish rural constituency stretching from the sparsely populated hill farming areas of the Angus Glens in the Grampians, across the largely agricultural Strathmore valley to more built up areas to the North of Dundee. The main towns in the constituency are the market towns of Forfar and Kirriemuir, Brechin and the ports of Montrose and Arbroath (known for both Arbroath smokies and the 1320 declaration of Scottish independence). Industry is mainly agriculture and forestry, though there is also a pharmaceutical industry at Montrose.

Politics: This was once a Conservative seat but with the party`s relentless decline in Scotland it has been held by the SNP since 1987.


Current MP
MICHAEL WEIR (Scottish National Party) Born 1957, Arbroath. Educated at Arbroath High School and Aberdeen University. Former solicitor. Angus councillor 1984-1988. First elected as MP for Angus in 2001.
Past Results
2010
Con: 11738 (31%)
Lab: 6535 (17%)
LDem: 4090 (11%)
SNP: 15020 (40%)
Oth: 577 (2%)
MAJ: 3282 (9%)
2005
Con: 11239 (29%)
Lab: 6850 (18%)
LDem: 6660 (17%)
SNP: 12840 (34%)
Oth: 556 (1%)
MAJ: 1601 (4%)
2001*
Con: 8736 (25%)
Lab: 8183 (23%)
LDem: 5015 (14%)
SNP: 12347 (35%)
Oth: 732 (2%)
MAJ: 3611 (10%)
1997
Con: 10603 (25%)
Lab: 6733 (16%)
LDem: 4065 (9%)
SNP: 20792 (48%)
Oth: 883 (2%)
MAJ: 10189 (24%)

2015 Candidates
DEREK WANN (Conservative) Educated at Aberdeen Grammar School. Businessman.
GERARD MCMAHON (Labour) Born 1986, Bellshill. Educated at Glasgow University. Political assistant.
SANJAY SAMANI (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Loughborough Grammar School and Cambridge University. Project manager. Contested Angus 2010, Angus North and Mearns 2011.
CALUM WALKER (UKIP) Born Dundee. Educated at Dundee High School and Abertay University.
DAVID MUMFORD (Green) Episcopal minister.
MICHAEL WEIR (SNP) See above.
Links
Comments - 121 Responses on “Angus”
  1. According to Chris Hanretty’s estimates the five best Westminster constituencies for the Leave campaign in Scotland were:
    1. Banff and Buchan 54.0% Leave 46.0% Remain
    2. Moray 50.1% Remain 49.9% Leave
    3. Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 50.6% Remain 49.4% Leave
    4. Angus 51.9% Remain 48.1% Leave
    5. Glenrothes 53.5% Remain 46.5% Leave

  2. Carnoustie by-election tomorrow! This reasonably affluent Dundee suburb is relatively similar to the Banff and District ward in Aberdeenshire, where we had that shock Conservative by-election victory last month, though importantly the Conservatives tend to do less well in Carnoustie and the town had a good Remain vote at the EU membership referendum.

    With the result in Arbroath East & Lunan in mind I believe that the Conservatives can poll ahead on the first preference vote. It’s a tricky call but I think the Conservatives could pull this one off.

  3. Votes are in, count tomorrow at 10. If the SNP lose this by-election then they lose their majority which they only just got back last week as a result of the Arbroath East & Lunan by-election!

  4. It would be a shock Tory gain from 4th, and just 6% last time. I’m going for IND gain as the anti-SNP vote coalesces

  5. An independent gain is also very possible yes.

  6. Independent GAIN from SNP 🙂

  7. Carnoustie and District by-election result:
    David Cheape (Ind) 1,401 – 43.5%
    Mark McDonald (SNP) 1,033 – 32.1%
    Derek Shaw (Con) 568 – 17.7%
    Ray Strachan (Lab) 141- 4.4%
    Beth Morrison (Lib) 75 – 2.3%

    Total valid votes: 3,218

    Change from 2012:
    Independent -6.9
    SNP -4.3
    Con +11.6
    Lab -1.8
    Lib +1.4

  8. Under normal circumstances these results would most likely produce 2 Ind 1 SNP

  9. I wonder what a realistic target would be for the Conservatives In Scotland at the next GE?

    They must be pretty confident. I don’t think they’d win Angus but I think the SNP majority will be reduced.

  10. Yes I agree with that, looks like Angus is heading for a SNP minority administration.

    I would say that the following councils are viable targets for the Conservatives to take the largest share of councillors in at the moment:
    1. Scottish Borders
    2. Dumfries and Galloway
    3. South Ayrshire
    4. East Renfrewshire
    5. Aberdeenshire
    6. Edinburgh

  11. At the next general election with boundary change in mind the Conservative targets in Scotland are:
    1. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    2. Clydesdale and Eskdale
    3. Dumfries and Galloway
    4. Ayr and Carrick
    5. Edinburgh South West and Central
    6. Cunninghame East
    7. Gordon and Deeside

  12. And outside chances in Aberdeen South, Moray & Nairn and Kincardine & Angus East on a very good night at the poll.

  13. Kingtut

    If the political weather in Scotland is still going the Tories’ way at the next GE, then I don’t think Angus or Banff and Buchan will be immune,although obviously a bigger swing is required so of course it would be a remarkable achievment for Tories to win them.

    I’m not sure that looking at straight swings required is (even close to being) a reliable guide anymore.

  14. Especially in Scotland, but in fact anywhere in Great Britain.

  15. And just to clarify my statement of agreement was directed towards Kingtut.

  16. Alex Johnstone has died. As a list MSP do the Tories nominate his successor (or the next person on the list gets the gig) or is there some sort of byelection?

  17. The proposed Dundee East and Angus Glens constituency is essentially the successor of the Angus constituency.

  18. Theoretically speaking the SNP would need to achieve an overall Yes result in a future independence referendum in either Angus or Edinburgh for the plans to go ahead.

  19. That would depend on the course of the debate, whether it follows similar lines to the EU referendum result or to the 2015 UK general election result.

    Is it achievable for Yes to poll ahead in Angus or Edinburgh?

  20. I’d expect it to be “Quebec style” in the sense that the status quo would prevail and the issue would be essentially settled for an extended period, but I’d expect the margin of victory to be wider than was the case in Quebec.

    I just think the moment when the nationalists could have been won has passed. Irrespective of what the polls said at the time I think a referendum fought before the Eurozone crisis was eminently winnable from their point of view. That crisis made the currency question awkward. Brexit will make it even more so.

    Although the the latter has made independence emotionally more appealing to many, it has also made it practically more difficult.

  21. Leaving the EU is enough of an event to justify a second referendum, but the SNP need some more luck- they need something that will make staying in the UK less attractive than border guards at Gretna.

  22. Project Fear! Project Fear!

  23. It’s interesting – I think that it used to be the Tories who suffered the most from the constitutional question. Today, it’s Labour, whose lack of a raison d’etre in Scotland has reached crisis levels, especially with the Lib Dems looking relatively purposeful and confident again.

  24. It’s not really comparable to the constitutional debate in Quebec which tends to go more along the lines of linguistic differences over affluence in terms of support for the status quo. Ironically the more Oui-voting parts of Quebec would actually be more likely to vote No in Scotland based on demographics (Quebec City somewhat similar to Edinburgh, Montreal more akin to Glasgow).

  25. A Yes vote is certainly possible but based on the results of the 2015 UK general election and 2016 Scottish Parliament and EU referendums I do not believe it is plausible: as I’ve said they’d need to take Edinburgh (which is very very unlikely) or Angus in a second independence referendum.

  26. Current opinion polling and recent local council by-election results also do not suggest that the SNP are anywhere near the levels of support they require to come close to winning a second referendum.

  27. So I’ve been revising my Scottish independence referendum notionals for the North East of Scotland, here are the figures (from Yes-No by Westminster constituency):

    Dundee West 58% YES
    Banff and Buchan 52% YES
    Dundee East 51% YES
    Aberdeen North 53% NO
    Angus 55% NO
    Moray 58% NO
    Gordon 62% NO
    Aberdeen South 65% NO
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine 67% NO

    The No vote was primarily concentrated in the more affluent parts of the North East: in Aberdeenshire (outside of Banff & Buchan), the West End of Aberdeen and the outer suburbs of Dundee (Broughty Ferry, Monifieth and parts of the West End). The spread of the Yes vote was more unusual: strong in some traditional SNP towns like Arbroath, Carnoustie, Fraserburgh and Peterhead and around the Northfield estate in Aberdeen and most of Dundee (primarily concentrated around the more deprived parts of the city).

    In terms of the initial proposed boundaries in the North East the vote looked something like:

    Dundee 59% YES
    Banff and Buchan 51% NO
    Aberdeen North 54% NO
    Dundee East and Angus Glens 55% NO
    Moray and Nairn 57% NO
    Kincardine and Angus East 60% NO
    Aberdeen South 63% NO
    Gordon and Deeside 65% NO

  28. In terms of Scottish Parliament constituency seats the vote appears to have went as follows:

    Dundee City West 58% YES
    Dundee City East 57% YES
    Banffshire and Buchan Coast 53% YES
    Aberdeen Donside 53% NO
    Angus South 57% NO
    Moray 59% NO
    Angus North and Mearns 60% NO
    Aberdeenshire East 61% NO
    Aberdeen Central 62% NO
    Aberdeen South and North Kincardine 63% NO
    Aberdeenshire West 67% NO

  29. Based on yesterday’s polls Conservative gains in Angus, Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock and Banff & Buchan should not be ruled out!

  30. I would add in Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock to that list. Otherwise I agree.

    On the latest poll I believe that it is winnable for the Conservatives with:

    CON 43
    SNP 43
    LAB 13
    LDEM 1

  31. In practice here is, roughly, the Conservative target list in Scotland in my opinion, based on the independence and EU referendum results and 2015 and 2016 elections:
    1. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    2. Dumfries and Galloway
    3. West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
    4. Aberdeen South
    5. East Renfrewshire
    6. Moray
    7. Edinburgh South West
    8. Perth and North Perthshire
    9. Ochil and South Perthshire
    10. Stirling
    11. Gordon
    12. Angus
    13. Edinburgh South
    14. East Lothian
    15. Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
    16. Banff and Buchan

  32. If they were to get all 16 elected the election results in Scotland would very much resemble those of 1979 and 1983 for the Conservatives.

  33. Is there anything specific that has happened since 2005 to make this so much less winnable for the Tories or just their general malaise. Of course in that year they were only 1601 votes behind the SNP so in some ways it should be a more plausible gain than either Moray or OSP

  34. Guess at the 2017 local result for first preferences across the six wards that make up this constituency – 2012 in brackets
    Con 34% (19%)
    SNP 31% (43%)
    Ind 27% (26%)
    Lab 4% (5%)
    LD 3% (7%)

  35. Despite Weir’s majority I think this could be a close result come election night.

  36. Based on what’s already been established throughout this website the only real shock would be Banff & Buchan and possibly also Gordon on that list, also Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock and Central Ayrshire (not on the list).

  37. This would require a huge boycott plus major direct switching to Tories by 2015 voters. Clearly there are no votes left to be squeezed from the LibDems, not many Green votes will shift to the Tories as they have no candidate. A few hundred will go to Weir though

  38. Apparently Weir was extremely unhappy at the local election count and left early.

    I agree with Plopwell that this may well be a Conservative gain, but I’m going to hold off on tonight’s two Scottish polls before making any firm predictions.

  39. I perhaps wouldn’t go as far to describe Iraq and tuition fees as comparable to a second scottish referendum

  40. A friend of mine up in Elgin said he overheard a person on the street say to an SNP activist handing out flyers: “Away, am no voting fur that toilet brush heid, Robertson” – charming!

  41. Reports that this has gone blue

  42. CON GAIN – 6.6% majority

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