Alyn & Deeside

2015 Result:
Conservative: 13197 (31.9%)
Labour: 16540 (40%)
Lib Dem: 1733 (4.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 1608 (3.9%)
Green: 976 (2.4%)
UKIP: 7260 (17.6%)
MAJORITY: 3343 (8.1%)

Category: Semi-marginal Labour seat

Geography: Wales, Clwyd. Part of the Flintshire council area.

Main population centres: Connah`s Quay, Queensferry, Shotton, Buckley, Caergwrle.

Profile: Situated on the English border (and with around half the population born outside Wales) Alyn and Deeside is geographically one of the smallest Welsh constituencies. The main town in the constituency is Connah`s Quay, along with Buckley to the South and the village of Caergwrle. Deeside is a traditional industrial area - the constituency contains Connah`s Quay power station, the Tata steel plant, the Toyota Engine factory and BAE Systems in Broughton where the wings for the Airbus A380 are manufactured.

Politics: A reliable Labour seat, held by the party since its creation in 1983 although not always by large margins.


Current MP
MARK TAMI (Labour) Born 1962, Enfield. Educated at Enfield Grammar and Swansea University. Former trade union officer. First elected as MP for Alyn and Deeside in 2001.
Past Results
2010
Con: 12885 (32%)
Lab: 15804 (40%)
LDem: 7308 (18%)
PC: 1549 (4%)
Oth: 2377 (6%)
MAJ: 2919 (7%)
2005
Con: 8953 (25%)
Lab: 17331 (49%)
LDem: 6174 (17%)
PC: 1320 (4%)
Oth: 1718 (5%)
MAJ: 8378 (24%)
2001
Con: 9303 (26%)
Lab: 18525 (52%)
LDem: 4585 (13%)
PC: 1182 (3%)
Oth: 1826 (5%)
MAJ: 9222 (26%)
1997
Con: 9552 (23%)
Lab: 25955 (62%)
LDem: 4076 (10%)
PC: 738 (2%)
Oth: 1627 (4%)
MAJ: 16403 (39%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
LAURA KNIGHTLY (Conservative) Born North Wales. Educated at Sheffield University. Recruitment consultant.
MARK TAMI (Labour) See above.
TUDOR JONES (Liberal Democrat)
BLAIR SMILLIE (UKIP) Managing director.
ALASDAIR IBBOTSON (Green)
JACQUELINE HURST (Plaid)
Links
Comments - 106 Responses on “Alyn & Deeside”
  1. Sibbolef, I was just trying to suggest that with the mess Labour have made of the Health Service in Wales, that 3 seats is all they could be left with, as the Health Service is their party Big Ticket. Alyn will probably be one of those 3 seats because it is really an English seat, based on the population who live here.

    Catholicleft, if you lived in Alyn & Deeside you would understand our frustration at having a Career Politician in Mark Tami who is not acting in Parliment for the essential infrastructure we need. You will have read comments by others in this post about the drab state of our towns and the negative impression they have of this ward. I wish I could say I was proud to live here, but the poor state of the sewers, roads and pavements would make me a liar.

  2. If you think that Labour will win only three seats in Wales then you need to lay off the acid.

  3. Could UKIP get as many as 10,000 votes here?

  4. While a high proportion of the population was born in England this is mostly due to the local maternity unit being Countess of Chester Hospital in Chester.

  5. A high proportion of the population WORK in England.

  6. Brett, How far back do you go with your theory that Maternity services for this constituency were based in Chester?

    That just shows how poor Health Services in North Wales have become, IF you are correct.

  7. Er… mostly I suspect that it just shows that this constituency is right on the border (and indeed actually includes part of Chester, as I’m sure you’re well aware). The main maternity hospital for large parts of Mid Wales (for instance) is the RSH in Shrewsbury, simply because it’s easier to get to…

  8. Chester is in England. I am sure No constituency in Wales extends over the border.

    If you live in Wales, all official letters and communications from Government or local government are bi-lingual.

    I am NOT well aware that part of Chester is in Alyn and Deeside. The City of Chester has a border with Wales. But Chester is definitely in England.

  9. I used to live in Connah’s Quay (in the Alyn and Deeside Constituency), it is a toss up (mainly dependent on traffic, whether Ysbyty Glan Clwyd or the Countess of Chester is the closest A&E Unit or maternity unit…..it all depends on what part of the constituency that you are talking about.

  10. However, the Health board for North Wales is planning to suspend maternity services at Glan Clwyd hospital.

  11. Interesting – !

  12. Some parts of Chester (eg Saltney) do indeed lie over the border in Wales. The football ground actually straddles the border. I assume these areas form part of this constituency, but I don’t know that for a fact.

  13. @ Merseylib

    You’re absolutely right. The border actually runs through the car park – the stadium itself is in Wales.

  14. l’m given to understand that Broughton, which is in this constituency, is pretty much a suburb of Chester. Obviously the constituency itself doesn’t extend into England – no Welsh constituency does (unless you’re part of the nutty brigade which still claims Monmouthshire for England).

  15. Barnaby – That’s true quite a few engineers from Merseyside work there.

    DD – I’ve seen a sign in both English & Welsh in Chester, so I wouldn’t use that as a marker as to where the border lies..

    Local govt workers aren’t known for their accuracy in these matters.

  16. l’ve seen a sign in Welsh in London more than once. OK, they were Welsh churches, but still.

  17. Ha yes, there’s 2 of those in Liverpool too. I meant a council/Highway code sign in Chester.

  18. I was born in the maternity unit of Countess of Chester Hospital, then called West Cheshire Hospital. I’ve always lived in Connah’s Quay, near Wepre park. It’s less than ten miles by road to the hospital. Less than seven miles in a straight line.

  19. That’s interesting, since health is now devolved. Although children from N Wales travel to Alder Hey Hospital in Liverpool. I suppose it’s only fair, given that a few English go to Wales for free prescriptions.

  20. What are UKIP doing on the ground in Alyn and Deeside?

    They have an office don’t they. Are they doing old fashioned “door to door” canvassing as well?

    They seem to have a Mobile Poster truck going round the region as far as vale of Clwyd, in the form of a Land Rover Defender festooned with posters on front,back, sides and roof.

    I think it will be operating a loud speaker on Election Day?

    IF they can hold first place as they got in this region one year ago, then they could make a surprise gain of this seat.

    They are fighting a good to excellent campaign in the former Clwyd county area.

  21. So, they’re running an excellent campaign, but you don’t even know if they are canvassing or not?

  22. They are doing it differently in different constituencies?

  23. Lancs Observer

    You can’t go to Wales for free prescriptions, I’m afraid. I know someone who lives literally a couple of hundred yards on the English side of the border. His local chemist is in Wales, but his English address means he has to pay for his prescriptions.

  24. l’m detecting a pattern. Dai clearly thinks that potentially everyone hates Labour. So, if the Tories can’t beat Labour in a particular seat, UKIP will instead. This of course is always stated without any evidence. In this instance, he doesn’t even know whether they’re canvassing, and yet he still thinks they can win. You can be sure that, if UKIP really thought they could win any seat in Wales, Nigel Farage would be talking about it incessantly. Of course they can’t.

  25. There is no longer a “National” Health service is there?

    Health and Social care in Wales seems to be getting worse. Whose fault is that?

  26. UKIP were first in number of votes in this area of Wales one year ago. Real Votes in a real Election.

    How many of those votes will remain with UKIP? That is the big question.

  27. Barnaby. The evidence is in the previous election results.

    A. The European Election results of one year ago.

    B. Welsh Assembly Regional List from four years ago broken down by constituency.

    C. Welsh Assembly regional List from Eight years ago.
    Look at the evidence of electors voting Labour in the constituency. and then voting for another one of the 12 parties on the regional list.

  28. On the basis of the Euros we might be faced with PM Nigel Farage (God preserve us)!

    I accept that UKIP are doing well in this constituency, trying to exploit perceived local grievances against the relatively large Eastern European immigrant population here. They may well get 20% or so, but that’s not going to win, though it might conceivably affect the main Labour v Tory fight here.

  29. OK, what about the last general election result? You seem to have forgotten that one. And the opinion polls. It is very important, to avoid having egg all over one’s face, to take into account all polling evidence & election results, not just the ones you like the most. That’s why l got only a small number of results wrong in 2010. And why my predictions will turn out to be more accurate than those of certain people who contribute here. This is a quality that H.Hemmelig, Tory & Peter Crawford all have – they all want the Tories to win but are not blind to countervailing evidence when it’s clearly there.

  30. A majority of 2919 Five years ago.

    Turnover in the electorate. New houses built.

    About 25% change in the electorate.

    Possible lower vote for the Lib Dem candidate.

    Possible swing from Cons and LibDems TO UKIP

    Just some of the factors why we can expect the result will be closer here than 5 years ago.

    Plus we know that Ed Miliband has visited the seat recently.

  31. There is one more factor….Mark Tami is not such a popular MP.

    I think that this is Labour’s most vunerable seat in Wales this time around, as it seems to be turning into a three way marginal – if for example UKIP polls 20% then this could skew the result….why are Dinbych Dai and my thoughts so silly and scary – ?

    It is perfectly possible that Labour’s majority here could be less than at the last GE

  32. Seems unlikely their majority of 8% would be reduced in a seat in which they got 62% vote share in 1997 and the boundaries haven’t changed, but I bow to superior knowledge.

    It can certainly be admitted that UKIP are a big unknown whose performance will vary widely from seat to seat.

  33. The other thing which has happened since 1997 is that the Welsh Assembly in Cardiff has been created, with elections also for Assembly members. Alyn and Deeside has given many of its votes to BNP and UKIP in the regional list elections. To such an extent, that eight years ago the BNP almost gained a North Wales regional Assembly Member. The Welsh Lib Dems were just ahead of them.

    Also. As many people have commented on this thread, this seat is very close to Chester and Cheshire. Many people travel to work or to the shops across the border.
    Many people in Alyn and Deeside get their News from North West of England TV and Radio Channels, and read English Newspapers.

  34. Part of the loss of votes is connected to the retirement of Barry Jones in 2001, who had about as large a personal vote as a backbencher can get. Mark Tami is basically seen as some bloke from Kent parachuted into a safe seat. He got 52% in 2001, 49% in 2005 and 40% in 2010. It seems likely that he is pretty much down to the bedrock Labour support at this point.

    In 2011 Carl Sargent the AM got a much higher share of the vote, 52%, albeit on a lower turnout so with fewer total votes. Sargent has much more of a local reputation.

  35. I’m amazed by how well UKIP has done in an area (North Wales) not known for its Conservatism

    I always thought UKIP would be seen as too English, to do well in this part of the world – but I agree that in a WWC seat like this, with an electorate that is mostly English, UKIP could poll very well – although not well enoigh to let the Tories sneak through and deprive Labour of what ought to be (and up until 2005 was) their safest seaty in North Wales

  36. You could hardly be seen as ‘too English’ in this constituency, Tim – over half the population was born in England.

  37. (Also, in regards to North Wales generally, well over a third of the population were born in England. I’m not sure how much that explains how well UKIP did last year in North Wales but it may well be a factor)

  38. ‘You could hardly be seen as ‘too English’ in this constituency, Tim’

    I meant ‘too English’ for North Wales as a whole, although UKIP’s relative success in North Wales does indeed suggest this is not a factor

  39. I have never read such a load of bullshit in all my life. People who say they have never seen Mark Tami out on the previous hustings well I must of been working with his double for the last three general elections. How any one can vote in this constituency can vote Conservative is beyond me after the devastation that Thatcher and her policies brought to the area is beyond me . I am predicting a labour victory by about 6000

  40. Majority 3343. Lab vote share up 0.4%, Con down 0.3%, UKIP up 15.4%.

    As safe enough gain, but could have lost had the tories or UKIP vote been proportioned differently.

  41. Labour did slightly better here than in neighbouring Delyn- Both seats remain fairly marginal but the Tories’ clear failure in both must indicate Labour are OK in Flintshire for the timebeing at least.

  42. In no way was the Tories performance here a “failure”. This is an absolute shithole of a constituency where Labour should be able to weigh its votes. Their majority was 25% in 2005 and 40% in 1997.

    The Vale of Clwyd is, though hardly Kensington, a far nicer seat than this one and would have been comfortably held by the Tories in the 1980s. This seat was comfortably Labour even in 1983.

  43. Labour clearly have serious weaknesses in a number of Welsh seats which could lead to Tory gains if they mess up the next five years. In particular the Tories will be focusing on Newport West, Bridgend, Clwyd South with Delyn and Alyn & Deeside possibly also in play.

  44. Well I said failure in the sense given they won neither and how well the Tories did in Wales overall.

  45. The Tories didn’t win here but the swing to Mark Tami was absolutely tiny, so his majority remains near enough what it was in 2010. Contrary to what I said further up about Labour being OK in Flintshire for the near future, I actually now believe that if the Tories continue to strengthen across Wales in the Assembly Elections next year they could make further progress in Labour-held marginal seats in Wales at the next general election, and this and Delyn could potentially be even closer in 2020, though I’m not saying they’ll necessarily be lost.

  46. Just a mild point of order for H. Hemmelig – I live in this constituency and Dubai it is not, but I am not sure what levels of opulence you are used to if this area falls into the category of “absolute shithole”.

  47. The Tories would have to do far better than they did in the Assembly elections this year for that to happen. So much depends on what happens to UKIP post-Brexit and, of course, what happens to the Labour Party after their leadership election takes place

  48. ‘Just a mild point of order for H. Hemmelig – I live in this constituency and Dubai it is not, but I am not sure what levels of opulence you are used to if this area falls into the category of “absolute shithole”

    Queensferry, Connahs Quay, Shotton and Buckley are never going to win any wards for attractiveness – pretty they ain’t – and I dsay that as someone from there – but this constituency as a whole probably does’t warrant the ‘absolute sh*thole’ tag

    Unlike across the border in the Wirral, there hasn’t been much demographic change here at all – it is still a WWC industrial area just as it was 20-30 years ago – which probably explains why politically it hasn’t changed much either

  49. Until now?

  50. Mark Tami, won’t be happy on June 9th…Conservative gain

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