Altrincham & Sale West

2015 Result:
Conservative: 26771 (53%)
Labour: 13481 (26.7%)
Lib Dem: 4235 (8.4%)
Green: 1983 (3.9%)
UKIP: 4047 (8%)
MAJORITY: 13290 (26.3%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: North West, Greater Manchester. Part of the Trafford council area.

Main population centres: Altrincham, Sale, Bowden, Hale.

Profile: An extremely affluent seat that contains some of the wealthiest of Manchester`s suburbs, such as Hale and Bowden. Altrincham and Sale were both part of Cheshire until the local government re-organisation in 1974 and both towns still have a Cheshire address, and still retain a grammar school system. It also home to a significant Jewish community. The western half of the seat is largely rural, made up of small villages and farms.

Politics: Altrincham and Sale West is the safest Conservative seat in Greater Manchester and, indeed, from 2001 to 2010 the only Conservative seat in Greater Manchester. Along with its predecessor Altrincham and Sale it has been represented continuously by the Conservatives since its creation in 1945.


Current MP
GRAHAM BRADY (Conservative) Born 1967, Salford. Educated at Altrincham Grammar and Durham University. Former worked in Public Relations (for Shandwick) and the CPS. First elected as MP for Altrincham and Sale West in 1997. PPS to Michael Ancram 1999-2000, Opposition whip 2000. PPS to Michael Howard 2003-2004, shadow Europe minister 2004-2007. Chairman of the 1922 Committee since 2010. Brady first became involved in politics as a teenager, campaigning to save Grammar schools in Trafford. He was first elected in 1997, becoming the youngest Conservative MP at the time. He resigned from the front bench in 2007 after criticising the party`s policy on grammar schools.
Past Results
2010
Con: 24176 (49%)
Lab: 11073 (22%)
LDem: 12581 (25%)
UKIP: 1563 (3%)
MAJ: 11595 (23%)
2005*
Con: 20569 (46%)
Lab: 13410 (30%)
LDem: 9595 (22%)
UKIP: 736 (2%)
MAJ: 7159 (16%)
2001
Con: 20113 (46%)
Lab: 17172 (39%)
LDem: 6283 (14%)
MAJ: 2941 (7%)
1997
Con: 22348 (43%)
Lab: 20843 (40%)
LDem: 6535 (13%)
Oth: 708 (1%)
MAJ: 1505 (3%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
GRAHAM BRADY (Conservative) See above.
JAMES WRIGHT (Labour)
JANE BROPHY (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Chorlton High School and Leeds University. Nutritionist. Trafford councillor 1999-2007. Contested Eccles 2005, Altrincham and Sale West 2010.
CHRIS FROST (UKIP)
NICK ROBERTSON-BROWN (Green)
Links
Comments - 159 Responses on “Altrincham & Sale West”
  1. Was any of the current Tatton constituency within the Altrincham constituency pre 1974?

  2. No. Before 1983 Altrincham & Sale was a compact seat covering just those two named towns – Hale and Bowdon were out in the Knutsford seat. There are a few areas in this seat which were in the pre-1945 Altrincham seat, but I don’ t think that will be of interest to you

  3. I note that sir Fergus Montgomery passed away on 19 March, aged 85. He represented Newcastle East, Brierley Hill, and finally Altrincham and Sale.

  4. Altrincham and Sale West has behaved rather differently from other edge of conurbation seats since 1997. I suspect this is because it includes farther out rural areas like Bowdon and Hale. A pure pre-1983 Altrincham and Sale would surely have gone Labour in 1997 and would now be a Tory held semi-marginal.

  5. Broadheath ward by election has been set for January the 16th.

  6. Bowdon and Hale aren’t rural by any stretch, they are very much part of Altrincham (whatever their inhabitants might think!), albeit with a distinct centre in the case of Hale. They are however very wealthy areas even by Altrincham standards so no doubt do bolster the Tory vote share considerably.

  7. The Broadheath by-election should be interesting. It is definitely a marginal ward . Here is a reminder of the results here from 2008:

    2008

    Conservative 1,681 (54.1) +2.9
    Labour 836 (26.9 )-1.0
    Liberal Democrat 334 (10.8 )-2.5
    Green 255 (8.2) -0.6

    2010

    Conservative 2569 (41.9) -12.2
    Labour 1799 (29.3) +2.4
    Liberal Democrat 1,519 (24.8) +14.0
    Green 247 (4.0) -4.2

    2011

    Conservative 1,879 (43.2) +1.3
    Labour 1,757 (40.4) +11.1
    Liberal Democrat 307 (7.1) -17.7
    UKIP 205 (4.7) +4.7
    Green 202 (4.6) +0.6

    2012

    Labour 1,662 (46.3) +5.9
    Conservative 1,397 (38.9) -4.3
    UKIP John Walsh 221 (6.2) +1.5
    Green 156( 4.3) -0.3
    Liberal Democrat 152 (4.2) -2.9

    Broadheath covers some of the area between Altrincham and Sale. On the whole it as a middle-class ward with a lot of reasonably pleasant modern private housing. There isn’t the wealth one sees in Bowdon or Hale but 40% of residents between 16 and 74 are managers, professionals or administrators.Age-wise, 30 to 44 year-olds are disproportionately well-represented. A quarter of residents (and therefore about a third of electors) fall under within this age bracket.

  8. Tory – haven’t Labour won it twice? In any case turnout was 30% today.

  9. Broadheath ward By-election result here: Labour gain from Cons. Lab 1,377 Cons 1,258 UKIP 234 LibDem 150 Green 63.

  10. Labour were narrowly defeated in 2011 but won here in 2012 too. Slight swing back to Cons from 2012. Very much followed the national swing between these last 3 results.

  11. Surprised UKIP didn’t make a dent at all. Would have expected them to at least be in the high hundreds, if not a four digit number of votes.

  12. Thanks Joe. Neil – I imagine Altrincham is a bit too posh/AB and young for UKIP and I think the MP helps to keep them at bay with his views. The UKIP % was higher in the last 2 Manchester and Liverpool by-elections.

  13. This is a good result for Labour. The party will obviously be hopeful of ousting the last Tory from the ward in May; but if they are to depriv;e the Tories of control, they will have to do better than in 2012 when overall the Tories did pretty well in the circumstances. St Mary’s was very close indeed in 2012; if the Tories were to lose there & in Broadheath, they would lose control by one seat. For Labour to take control however they will have to win a wodge of marginals where they haven’t won for a few years now, such as Davyhulme E. It’s a tall order & unless & until the Labour lead grows further – which logically is unlikely to happen for quite a long while – the best the party can realistically hope for is a hung council with the LDs holding the balance of power.

  14. Not a bad Tory result in my view.

  15. There have been a couple of byelections recently suggesting a small swing back to the Conservatives from Labour since 2013’s locals, which might be a straw in the wind and would be in line with the narrowing of national polls. Big test coming up this year though.

  16. The Broadheath result shows us, once again, that UKIP are not doing particularly well in the North West

  17. Whilst it obviously wasn’t an amazing result to loose a seat I think the by- election result shows an improvement on the year before and I think we are seeing a 1.5- 2% swing to the cons in some recent contests.

    Will have to wait until May to see concrete proof of this though

  18. And we will need to sift the evidence carefully; I suspect the headlines will be dominated by a strong UKIP performance in the European poll but I also suspect a lot of ticket-splitting by Conservative voters.

  19. I see that the leader of Trafford Council, Cllr Matt Colledge is stepping down as a Cllr in Altrincham ward. That jolly camp Tory I mentioned on the W&SE By-election page, Matthew Sephton is to replace him as candidate in his 12th attempt to be elected.

  20. He was their candidate for Salford and Eccles and then the Manchester Central by election best known for its dismal turnout.

    I take it he’s been fielded in the most unwinnable seats for the Tories if he’s had that many tries (guessing that includes council elections).

  21. Neil – I assume he just keeps moving house, as I’ve found him listed in council election results and 192 in St Helens, Lancaster, Wigan, Liverpool, Manchester and Trafford in the past decade or so.

  22. The Conservatives will be delighted to have held Trafford, though Labour ran them very close the critical wards of Flixton and Davyhulme West.

    Here are the results for Altrincham and Sale West division. I should point out that UKIP fought only four wards out of nine. Nevertheless, it’s a pretty solid result for the Conservatives. I used the highest vote method for Altrincham itself, which returned two councillors (both Tories).

    Conservatives 14077 (46.3%)
    Labour 7320 (24.1%)
    LDs 3795 (12.5%)
    Green 3710 (12.3%)
    UKIP 1477 (4.9%)

  23. *in the critical wards…

  24. prediction for 2015-

    con- 45%
    Lab- 25%
    Lib- 19%
    UKIP- 11%

  25. UKIP won’t get 11% here- too leafy, too small ‘l’ liberal, too professional. I think there’ll be a reasonably significant drop with Labour mostly benefitting but with the Tory vote share holding up

    Con 49
    Lab 29
    LD 15
    UKIP 5
    Oth 1

  26. *significant Lib Dem drop.

  27. based on your predictions and names you’re clearly a tory so why don’t change your comment boxes so it turns blue and has the conservative tree?

  28. Robbie- although I am a Tory I am not a member of the Conservative party. Moreover, I would take issue with your implied point that my predictions are somehow coloured by my politics. I have consistently argued that the next election will produce a Labour-lead government. Furthermore my predictions generally fall within a similar range to those of Barnaby Marder who I can assure you is not a Conservative (or even a Tory).

    Regarding this seat, there is very little ground for considering that UKIP will break double figures. It is simply not the sort of place where UKIP will do well. I do not think there is anything unreasonable or partial about pointing out that. And in any event my predicted Conservative majority over Labour is exactly the same as yours!

  29. *Labour-led

  30. I can see room for the Tory vote to increase here.
    I don’t think UKIP will perform that well, and the drop in the LD vote is likely to be substantial and not all in the Labour column given the demographics.

  31. JJB- yes I think that is a fair point.

  32. I have to say that Tory has always struck me as a very balanced contributor in terms of analysing his own preffered party’s fortunes

    I concur with his view that UKIP will flounder too. The electorate is too wealthy and professional for them to compete although I imagine they might be able to take some Labour votes from the less well-off wards but not many

    they would be better focusing gtheir efforts further south in places like weaver vale and ellesmere port where they are more likely to make an imact

  33. I personally think UKIP will do better than you think. Especially if the candidate starts publicizing the fact he is standing. Altrincham has an identity problem, those who run it seem to forget or overlook the fact that it is surrounded by 3 council estates,whose inhabitants could well lean towards UKIP, not because they are racist or uneducated, simply because on a national and local level the main parties do nothing at all for them or our town

  34. Conservative hold. 9,000 majority. Labour 2nd.

  35. A pretty strong Tory result in Altrincham and Sale

    Con 53.0 (+4)
    Lab 26.7 (+4.3)
    LD 8.4 (-17.1)
    UKIP 8.0 (+4.8)
    Gre 3.9 (+3.9)

    A rather similar result to Wimbledon and in some ways, the seats are not dissimilar being home to a lot of thirtysomething and liberalish managers and professionals.

  36. I was looking at the Trafford council elections and was surprised at just how badly Labour did in Altrincham itself. The Conservatives led by well over 2 to 1. Perhaps it helps to explain why the Conservative position in the seat remains pretty solid despite the pro-Labour trend in Sale.

  37. Graham Brady has always been a very good fit for this seat.

  38. 2016 results (no UKIP)

    Con 50.3
    Lab 25.1
    LD 17.4
    Greens 6.8*

    *stood in all bar one seat

    A pretty good Conservative result. LDs carried Timperley and Village and Labour narrowly won Broadheath but the Conservatives carried the rest managing 71% in Bowdon and 70% in Hale Barns.

  39. Apparently, Andy Burnham carried every constituency in the Greater Manchester mayoral – even this one by 2600 votes. Even Tony Blair would have envied that performance.

  40. Liberal Party candidate here is Neil Taylor, former LibDem councillor for Timperley.

  41. A somewhat shaky Conservative result here- majority down to 6,426 but I wasn’t hugely surprised. Wimbledon behaved similarly (albeit with a bigger LD share) and I think the seats are rather alike- strongly Remain voting and home to lots of thirty-something managers and professionals (predominantly private sector).

  42. I’ve said for a while that this seat is probably trending Lab, albeit slowly. The one thing this result and neighbouring Stretford does indicate though is that Tory prospects of holding onto Trafford council now look slim.

  43. I was very surprised also at this result. You wouldn’t have thought that Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour would have much traction in this seat. That said, I believe 62% of people under 40 voted Lab this time…they can’t all be right on lefty obsessive from London and Brighton.

  44. I think Graham Brady had one of the worst results of the night for any Conservative MP who held their seat- especially an incumbent one who has held the seat now for 20 years and in a part of the world outside the Tories’ annus horibilis of much of Greater London…

  45. I flatly disagree. Indeed the whole point is that demographically Altrincham is akin to a leafy outer London seat. The result was not a huge surprise to me.

  46. Perhaps so but nearly everywhere else outside the capital the Tories were getting at least nominal vote share increases, even in seats they didn’t have a hope in hell. Here, the vote share decrease was 2%, much more than next-door Stretford and Urmston. So yes I agree it may behave like an outer London seat but it’s in Greater Manchester where as a whole the Tories increased their vote share in line with the national trend. Against this background, the very fact they didn’t increase here should be a worry to them locally going forward.

  47. How long has it been going their way?

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