Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine

2015 Result:
Conservative: 15916 (28.8%)
Labour: 2487 (4.5%)
Lib Dem: 11812 (21.4%)
SNP: 22949 (41.6%)
Green: 885 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1006 (1.8%)
Independent: 141 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 7033 (12.7%)

Category: Semi-marginal SNP seat

Geography: Scotland, North East. Part of Aberdeenshire council area.

Main population centres: Stonehaven, Inverbervie, Ballater, Banchory.

Profile: An affluent rural seat. In the west the constituency stretches up the Cairngorm mountains and is largely unpopulated coutryside, dotted with villages, and includes Balmoral Castle, the Royal family`s Summer retreat. The eastern part of the constituency is home to many who commute into Aberdeen and the oil boom in Aberdeen has seen an expansion in the suburbs around historic towns such as Stonehaven and Inverbervie.

Politics: Another former area of Conservative strength in Scotland, in this case one that went to the Liberal Democrats after the Conservative wipe-out in 1997 and then to the SNP in their 2015 landslide.


Current MP
STU DONALDSON (SNP) , son of Maureen Watt MSP. Educated at Banchory Academy and Glasgow University. Former Parliamentary assistant. First elected as MP for Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 13678 (30%)
Lab: 6159 (14%)
LDem: 17362 (38%)
SNP: 7086 (16%)
Oth: 910 (2%)
MAJ: 3684 (8%)
2005
Con: 11814 (28%)
Lab: 5470 (13%)
LDem: 19285 (46%)
SNP: 4700 (11%)
Oth: 379 (1%)
MAJ: 7471 (18%)
2001*
Con: 11686 (31%)
Lab: 4669 (12%)
LDem: 16507 (44%)
SNP: 4634 (12%)
Oth: 418 (1%)
MAJ: 4821 (13%)
1997
Con: 15080 (35%)
Lab: 3923 (9%)
LDem: 17742 (41%)
SNP: 5639 (13%)
Oth: 805 (2%)
MAJ: 2662 (6%)

2015 Candidates
ALEXANDER BURNETT (Conservative) Businessman.
BARRY BLACK (Labour)
ROBERT SMITH (Liberal Democrat) Born 1958. Educated at Merchant Taylor`s School and Aberdeen University. Estate manager. Contested Aberdeen South 1987 for the SDP. MP for West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine 1997 to 2015. Backed Sir Menzies Campbell in the 2006 leadership race.
DAVID LANSDELL (UKIP)
RICHARD OPENSHAW (Green) Born 1975, Isle of Wight.
STU DONALDSON (SNP) , son of Maureen Watt MSP. Educated at Banchory Academy and Glasgow University. Parliamentary assistant.
GRAHAM REID (Independent)
Links
Comments - 590 Responses on “Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine”
  1. I think this will be one of four seats that the Conservatives will take from the SNP. The other three are Berwickshire, Dumfries & Galloway and East Renfrewshire.

  2. I’ve mentioned this before, but the SNP are going to have to think very carefully about how they pitch their campaign.

    In 2015 they were unafraid to bandy about words like “socialist” and “progressive” in a campaign that, while it worked everywhere, was tailor-made for Glasgow (and tailor-made to outflank Ed Miliband, whose Keynesian instincts were continually reined in by focus groups telling him he had to appear “tough” to capture those key Essex marginals). But Glasgow is now safe SNP territory, and the new battlegrounds are seats like WA&K which require a quite different approach. Unfortunately, triangulating towards the Tories would rather undermine their narrative of Scottish exceptionalism. Tough situation for them.

  3. I can see the SNP losing this but not by 12 points.

  4. No way the Tory vote will be 47%. The conservative vote was only at 38% here in Scottish parliamentary election.

  5. Prediction as of April 25th 2017:

    SNP: 37% (-5)
    Con 43.1% (+14.1)
    Lab: 0 (-5)
    LDem 19% (-2)

    Scottish Con gain, predicted majority of 6.1%
    *Prediction based on national shares of 29% Tory, 45% SNP, 15% Labour, 5.5% LDem, 2.25% Green.

  6. Here is my complete Scottish independence referendum 2014 notionals for 1999 wards in Grampian.

    ABERDEEN CITY
    Murtle – 78% NO
    Seafield – 78% NO
    Queens Cross – 78% NO
    Broomhill – 77% NO
    Midstocket – 77% NO
    Ashley – 76% NO
    Cults – 76% NO
    Gairn – 74% NO
    Peterculter – 72% NO
    Hazlehead – 70% NO
    Duthie – 68% NO
    Newhills – 66% NO
    Danestone – 65% NO
    Gilcomston – 65% NO
    Loirston – 65% NO
    Oldmachar – 65% NO
    Jesmond – 63% NO
    Pittodrie – 63% NO
    Sunnybank – 60% NO
    Berryden – 59% NO
    Bridge of Don – 59% NO
    Kittybrewster – 59% NO
    Langstane – 59% NO
    Donmouth – 57% NO
    Bankhead/Stoneywood – 54% NO
    Castlehill – 54% NO
    Hilton – 51% NO
    Pitmedden – 51% NO
    Garthdee – 50% NO
    Nigg – 50% NO
    Woodside – 50% YES
    Stockethill – 51% YES
    Kincorth West – 53% YES
    St. Machar – 54% YES
    Auchmill – 55% YES
    Summerhill – 55% YES
    Sheddocksley – 56% YES
    Seaton – 57% YES
    Torry – 58% YES
    Cummings Park – 59% YES
    Mastrick – 59% YES
    Springhill – 61% YES
    Tullos Hill – 65% YES

    ABERDEENSHIRE
    Banchory West – 76% NO
    Mid Deeside – 74% NO
    Stonehaven Central – 73% NO
    Upper Deeside – 73% NO
    Banchory East and Crathes – 72% NO
    Stonehaven North and Fetteresso – 72% NO
    Alford – 71% NO
    Westhill Central – 70% NO
    Aboyne – 69% NO
    Donside and Cromar – 69% NO
    Echt – 69% NO
    Lower Deeside – 69% NO
    Meldrum – 69% NO
    Chapel and Gadie – 68% NO
    Ellon Town – 68% NO
    Kinellar and Westhill North – 68% NO
    Kintore and Keithhall – 68% NO
    Mearns North – 68% NO
    Portlethen South – 68% NO
    Elrick – 67% NO
    Tarves – 67% NO
    Insch – 65% NO
    Mearns Central – 65% NO
    Newtonhill, Muchalls and Cammachmore – 65% NO
    Udny-Slains – 65% NO
    Belhevie – 64% NO
    Huntly East – 64% NO
    Logie Buchan – 64% NO
    Newmachar and Fintray – 64% NO
    Kemnay – 63% NO
    Stonehaven South – 63% NO
    Strathbogie – 63% NO
    Ythan – 63% NO
    Inverbervie, Gourdon and Johnshaven – 62% NO
    Porthlethen North – 62% NO
    Upper Ythan – 61% NO
    Inverurie North – 60% NO
    Mearns South – 60% NO
    Boddam-Inverugie – 58% NO
    Gamrie-King Edward – 58% NO
    Inverurie Central – 58% NO
    Mintlaw-Longside – 58% NO
    South Buchan – 58% NO
    Buchan North East – 57% NO
    Durn – 56% NO
    Mintlaw-Old Deer – 56% NO
    Aberchirder – 55% NO
    Fyvie-Methlick – 55% NO
    Turriff East – 55% NO
    Turriff West – 55% NO
    Central Buchan – 54% NO
    Cruden – 53% NO
    Macduff – 53% NO
    Banff West and Boyndie – 52% NO
    Huntly West – 52% NO
    Inverurie South and Port Elphinstone – 52% NO
    Blackhouse – 51% NO
    Banff – 50% NO
    Fraserburgh South – 52% YES
    Buchan North – 53% YES
    Lonmay and St Fergus – 53% YES
    Dales-Towerhill – 54% YES
    Clerkhill – 63% YES
    Buchanhaven – 67% YES
    Peterhead Central-Roanheads – 70% YES
    Fraserburgh East – 70% YES
    Fraserburgh North – 77% YES
    Fraserburgh West – 78% YES

    MORAY
    Forres East – 70% NO
    Burghsea – 65% NO
    Elgin-Bishopmill West – 65% NO
    Finderne – 65% NO
    Innes – 65% NO
    Heldon and Laich – 64% NO
    Elgin-Central West – 62% NO
    Lossiemouth East – 61% NO
    Speyside – 61% NO
    Lennox – 60% NO
    Lhanbryde and Birnie – 60% NO
    New Elgin West – 60% NO
    Rathford – 60% NO
    Glenlivet – 57% NO
    Rural Keith and Rothes – 57% NO
    Lossiemouth West – 56% NO
    Elgin-Bishopmill East – 55% NO
    Fife-Keith and Strathisla – 55% NO
    Forres West and Altyre – 55% NO
    Keith – 53% NO
    Buckie East and Findochty – 52% NO
    Forres Central – 51% NO
    Buckie Central – 50% NO
    Buckie West – 51% YES
    New Elgin East – 51% YES
    Elgin-Cathedral – 53% YES

    For more breakdowns from the 2014 independence referendum check out my thread on the Vote UK site (here: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/9192/scottish-independence-referendum-2014-results ) which includes maps and spreadsheets of the results broken down by 2007 electoral ward, 2011 Scottish Parliament constituency and 2005 UK Parliament constituency.

  7. Referendum result by UK Parliament constituency:

    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine = 68% NO
    Aberdeen South = 65% NO
    Gordon = 62% NO
    Aberdeen North = 52% NO
    Banff and Buchan = 52% YES

  8. Dead cert Tory gain.

  9. JOHN SMITH
    Dead cert Tory gain.
    April 26th, 2017 at 5:54 pm

    No such thing in Scotland.

  10. Not dead cert but extremely likely based on current opinion polling.

  11. Apparently Theresa May is visiting Aberdeenshire tomorrow.

  12. Rumoured to be visiting Banchory, which is a solidly Tory area.

  13. What is most significant about this election is that it is not so much a SNP – Con battle but a Con – Lab battle to be the main opposition to the SNP that the Tories appear to be winning. Labour should have been solid in Edinburgh South and hopefully of regaining the marginal / semi marginals Dumfries, East Lothian, East Renfrewshire, Edinburgh North and Glasgow Central and turn the safe SNP seats into marginals for 2020. Current polls suggest that the Tories will beat Labour in most of the 41 former Labour seats.

  14. 2022

  15. PLOPWELLIAN TORY
    I know think it’s possible that the Conservatives could gain Aberdeen South, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Banff & Buchan and Gordon.
    April 29th, 2017 at 11:20 am

    Are you smoking any exotic cigarettes at that university?

  16. Banff & Buchan is probably a bit of a long shot but otherwise I agree with that, and roughly agree with Plopwell’s figures only I think it’ll be better for the Conservatives and worse for the SNP in WAK.

    Also confirmed Mrs May is touring Aberdeenshire this afternoon.

  17. Based on the last three opinion polls which average out to SNP 43% CON 29% I believe that we would be looking at 10 Conservative MP’s being elected.

    Ordered by likelihood:
    * Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
    * Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    * Dumfries and Galloway
    * West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
    * Aberdeen South
    * Moray
    * Perth and North Perthshire
    * East Renfrewshire
    * Gordon

    Depending on the national vote the Conservatives could also take Edinburgh South West, Ochil & South Perthshire and Stirling with a slight advance on the given figures.

  18. NTY UK

    I think the Tories are entitled to be favourites in the top 4 seats you mention.

    Beyond that I continue to rule out Perth and North Perthshire as it is not much affected by the fishing issue and Pete Wishart will continue to outsmart the Tories there.

    Any slippage from their current polling peak (as I see it) will definitely restrict the Tory gains to the top 4 this time round.

  19. Tasmina A-S may reduce the SNP to Conservative swing in Ochil as an ex-tory.

  20. Is she now a socialist or is she a Tartan Tory?

  21. 2016 notional for West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine-

    CON 39
    SNP 36
    LD 15
    L 10

    As I’ve said this should be a fairly comfortable Conservative gain.

  22. With Sir Robert Smith gone, the LD vote is going to fall back even further. Tories must be confident of winning this seat.

  23. This is one of the most likely Tory gains. I can see the Tory vote going up by a very hefty amount.

  24. Yes I agree. The Conservatives are currently on track to poll first in all wards covered by the West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine constituency: it is the perfect seat for the party north of the border.

  25. ”Yes. The Liberal Democrat vote will fall away here”

    Agreed in my opinion the Lib Dems weakest performances will come in seat they were seen as competitive in in the last election but actually crashed into third.

    i.e.
    -Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine
    -Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    -Bristol West (utterly ludicrous that people think they could win, forth is on the cars quite frankly)

  26. *on the cards

  27. Aberdeenshire results-

    Conservative: 23 (+9)

    SNP: 21 (-8)

    LDs: 14 (+2)

    Independent: 10 (-2)

    Labour: 1 (-1)

  28. Oh, and Green: 1 (NC)

  29. Unionist parties with bookies are favorites in these constituencies
    Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine 1/5 (CON)
    Berwickshire Roxburgh Selkirk 1/6 (CON)
    Caithness Sutherland Easter Ross 10/11 (LD)
    Dumfries & Galloway 1/6 CON
    Dumfriesshire Clydesdale Tweeddale 1/6 (CON)
    Dunbartonshire East 4/6 (LD)
    Edinburgh South 6/5 (LAB)
    Edinburgh West 1/2 (LD)
    Fife North East 10/11 (LD)
    Orkney Shetland 2/7 (LD)
    Renfrewshire East 8/13 (CON)

    There are other seats where its very close with the bookies such as Sterling, Ochil & South Perthshire, Perth and North Perthshire etc.

  30. What odds are Cons in those seats where LD are favourites?

  31. BT SAYS…
    What odds are Cons in those seats where LD are favourites?
    May 9th, 2017 at 8:06 pm

    Caithness 50/1
    East Dunbartonshire 20/1
    Edinburgh West 8/1
    North East Fife 16/1
    Orkney and Shetland 20/1

  32. According to BET365 (cons have better odds)
    Caithness 28/1
    East Dunbartonshire 16/1
    Edinburgh West 6/1
    Fife NE 14/1
    Orkney & S 16/1

  33. Most folk appear to have marked this one down on their pools slip as a definite Tory gain.

  34. I estimate the Conservatives polled 44% here in the local elections on first preferences. Think that is the highest figure for any Scottish Westminster constituency (more than Berwickshire, D&G, East Renfrewshire etc.) This is up from 30% in 2012. The SNP dropped from 31% to 26%, the Lib Dems dropped from 22% to 19%

  35. @ David –

    I’ve gone the full result with ward splits for West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine here:

    Con 16,087 (43.7%)
    SNP 9,502 (25.8%)
    LD 6,902 (18.7%)
    Lab 2,381 (6.5%)
    Grn 957 (2.6%)
    Ind 891 (2.4%)
    Lbt 79 (0.2%)
    SDP 48 (0.1%)

  36. This seat : Backed remain
    Has a strong LD history
    Has a very likeable LD candidate

    On the back of the SNP slideback I see this as a Libdem gain in the early hours of Friday!

  37. Teddy,

    All true though it lurched strongly Tory both last year in the Scottish Parliament election and also last month in the locals.

    I think for those reasons that it is far more likely to go blue than orange if the SNP loses.

  38. How do locals pronounce Kincardine? There’s a town with the same name in Ontario and most Canadians say Kin-car-din. I’ve always read the last syllable a bit longer – Kin-ca-dean.

  39. Kin-CAR-din is usual I think.

    Unlike the place names in Worcestershire, Herefordshire & Shropshire such as Leintwardine, Lugwardine, Bedwardine – I think the emphasis is on the first syllable of those. However, if I’m wrong about that, I apologize & bow to someone else’s superior knowledge.

  40. Kin-car-din is indeed the correct way of pronouncing Kincardine in Aberdeenshire.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)