Aberconwy

2015 Result:
Conservative: 12513 (41.5%)
Labour: 8514 (28.2%)
Lib Dem: 1391 (4.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 3536 (11.7%)
Green: 727 (2.4%)
UKIP: 3467 (11.5%)
MAJORITY: 3999 (13.3%)

Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: Wales, Clwyd. Part of the Conwy council area.

Main population centres: Conwy, Llandudno, Llanrwst, Betws-Y-Coed.

Profile: A seat in north Wales that is co-terminous with the old Aberconwy council area, now abolished. It consists of the medieval walled town of Conwy and the neighbouring Victorian seaside resort of Llandudno, then stretches inland to follow the more rural and Welsh speaking area of the Conwy valley, including Llanrwst and Betws-Y-Coed..

Politics: Prior to 1997 the seat had been held by the Conservative party for 27 years. After the retirement of Wyn Roberts in 1997 Labour won it from third place. In the 1999 Welsh assembly elections the seat was a surprise win for Plaid, but was won again by Labour in 2003, with Plaid a close second. The removal of Labour voting Bangor in 2010 once again made the seat a prime target for the Tories, and they won it back in the 2010 election.


Current MP
GUTO BEBB (Conservative) Born 1968, Wrexham. Educated at Ysgol Syr Hugh Owen and University of Wales. Former partner in an Economic Development consultancy. Contested Ogmore by-election 2002, Conwy in 2003 Welsh Assembly elections, Conwy 2005. First elected as MP for Aberconwy in 2010. A former Plaid Cymru constituency chairman he defected after being ousted as local chair for his opposition to the single currency.
Past Results
2010
Con: 10734 (36%)
Lab: 7336 (24%)
LDem: 5786 (19%)
PC: 5341 (18%)
Oth: 769 (3%)
MAJ: 3398 (11%)
2005*
Con: 9398 (28%)
Lab: 12479 (37%)
LDem: 6723 (20%)
PC: 3730 (11%)
Oth: 1327 (4%)
MAJ: 3081 (9%)
2001
Con: 8147 (24%)
Lab: 14366 (42%)
LDem: 5800 (17%)
PC: 5665 (16%)
Oth: 388 (1%)
MAJ: 6219 (18%)
1997
Con: 10085 (24%)
Lab: 14561 (35%)
LDem: 12965 (31%)
PC: 2844 (7%)
Oth: 1105 (3%)
MAJ: 1596 (4%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Conwy

Demographics
2015 Candidates
GUTO BEBB (Conservative) See above.
MARY WIMBURY (Labour) Educated at Oxford University. Policy advisor.
VICTOR BABU (Liberal Democrat) Surgeon.
ANDREW HAIGH (UKIP) Contested Delyn 2010.
PETRA HAIG (Green) Nurse.
DAFYDD MEURIG (Plaid) Gwynedd councillor.
Links
Comments - 113 Responses on “Aberconwy”
  1. Sorry, this post is just to get the comments to show up…

  2. I can see them now, cheers!

  3. Any thoughts on this seat in the Assembly election? It is a Plaid target (held 2007-11), though they were miles off at the GE… Tory hold I reckon

  4. Thats a bit like comparing chalk and cheese as there will even be voters who voted for Guto Bebb who will vote Plaid at the assembly level.

    If UKIP had stood Plaid might have had a chance but yes I agree Tory hold.

    As it stands I guess

    Con 37
    PC 30
    Lab 24
    LD 7
    Grn 2

    Given that Plaid have regained 2nd in voting intention I can see them doing relatively well in parts of the Mid and West Wales region and the western end of the north region on a very low assembly turnout.

  5. Whither 2017?
    Labour party edicts suggest Wimbury is automatically selected. Despite signalling a reluctance to abide by collective government responsibility, Bebb has not indicated that he will, er, not be standing. LD’s could (with a proper candidate) pick up on residual anti-Brexit sentiment, but obviously not enough. Plaid, I’m afraid, simply do not figure (we’re just a bit too far east). UKIP = Tory, as ever, but especially now.
    Even with a lazy MP, Con hold.

  6. Wimbury declined, Emily Owen selected for Labour.

  7. ACV – I get the impression you’re not overly enamoured with the present incumbent.

  8. Paul D – you have a positive gift for understatement.

  9. Guto Bebb has resigned as a Defence Minister. He was unhappy with the concessions May gave to the ERG today.

  10. https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/four-tory-members-have-gone-public-to-accuse-the-party-of

    Guto Bebb accused of “violent behaviour” towards Conservative Party members.

    Yet another test case for this supposedly beefed-up complaints procedure that parties have to follow. And once again, sadly, I imagine nothing will come of it. The Tories certainly won’t want to imperil an MP with a three-figure majority.

  11. Interesting that one of the complainants is ex-cabinet minister David Jones, who of course will be going head to head against Bebb for the Tory nomination for the new and fairly safe seat of Conway & Colwyn, as both their current seats disappear in the 2018 boundary review

    This will be a classic battle between a moderate and a right-winger, and Jones has every reason to hope that these seemingly spurious charges against Bebb go somewhere

  12. I should say I do have a vested interest in this as my father, whose increasingly reliant on the NHS as he approaches his eighties, lives in Llandudno, which of course is one of the main towns in the new seat, and have to say that I find the idea of him being represented in Parliament by David Jones quite frankly c

  13. should read ‘quite frankly repugnant’

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