Aberconwy

2015 Result:
Conservative: 12513 (41.5%)
Labour: 8514 (28.2%)
Lib Dem: 1391 (4.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 3536 (11.7%)
Green: 727 (2.4%)
UKIP: 3467 (11.5%)
MAJORITY: 3999 (13.3%)

Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: Wales, Clwyd. Part of the Conwy council area.

Main population centres: Conwy, Llandudno, Llanrwst, Betws-Y-Coed.

Profile: A seat in north Wales that is co-terminous with the old Aberconwy council area, now abolished. It consists of the medieval walled town of Conwy and the neighbouring Victorian seaside resort of Llandudno, then stretches inland to follow the more rural and Welsh speaking area of the Conwy valley, including Llanrwst and Betws-Y-Coed..

Politics: Prior to 1997 the seat had been held by the Conservative party for 27 years. After the retirement of Wyn Roberts in 1997 Labour won it from third place. In the 1999 Welsh assembly elections the seat was a surprise win for Plaid, but was won again by Labour in 2003, with Plaid a close second. The removal of Labour voting Bangor in 2010 once again made the seat a prime target for the Tories, and they won it back in the 2010 election.


Current MP
GUTO BEBB (Conservative) Born 1968, Wrexham. Educated at Ysgol Syr Hugh Owen and University of Wales. Former partner in an Economic Development consultancy. Contested Ogmore by-election 2002, Conwy in 2003 Welsh Assembly elections, Conwy 2005. First elected as MP for Aberconwy in 2010. A former Plaid Cymru constituency chairman he defected after being ousted as local chair for his opposition to the single currency.
Past Results
2010
Con: 10734 (36%)
Lab: 7336 (24%)
LDem: 5786 (19%)
PC: 5341 (18%)
Oth: 769 (3%)
MAJ: 3398 (11%)
2005*
Con: 9398 (28%)
Lab: 12479 (37%)
LDem: 6723 (20%)
PC: 3730 (11%)
Oth: 1327 (4%)
MAJ: 3081 (9%)
2001
Con: 8147 (24%)
Lab: 14366 (42%)
LDem: 5800 (17%)
PC: 5665 (16%)
Oth: 388 (1%)
MAJ: 6219 (18%)
1997
Con: 10085 (24%)
Lab: 14561 (35%)
LDem: 12965 (31%)
PC: 2844 (7%)
Oth: 1105 (3%)
MAJ: 1596 (4%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Conwy

Demographics
2015 Candidates
GUTO BEBB (Conservative) See above.
MARY WIMBURY (Labour) Educated at Oxford University. Policy advisor.
VICTOR BABU (Liberal Democrat) Surgeon.
ANDREW HAIGH (UKIP) Contested Delyn 2010.
PETRA HAIG (Green) Nurse.
DAFYDD MEURIG (Plaid) Gwynedd councillor.
Links
Comments - 143 Responses on “Aberconwy”
  1. Sorry, this post is just to get the comments to show up…

  2. I can see them now, cheers!

  3. Any thoughts on this seat in the Assembly election? It is a Plaid target (held 2007-11), though they were miles off at the GE… Tory hold I reckon

  4. Thats a bit like comparing chalk and cheese as there will even be voters who voted for Guto Bebb who will vote Plaid at the assembly level.

    If UKIP had stood Plaid might have had a chance but yes I agree Tory hold.

    As it stands I guess

    Con 37
    PC 30
    Lab 24
    LD 7
    Grn 2

    Given that Plaid have regained 2nd in voting intention I can see them doing relatively well in parts of the Mid and West Wales region and the western end of the north region on a very low assembly turnout.

  5. Whither 2017?
    Labour party edicts suggest Wimbury is automatically selected. Despite signalling a reluctance to abide by collective government responsibility, Bebb has not indicated that he will, er, not be standing. LD’s could (with a proper candidate) pick up on residual anti-Brexit sentiment, but obviously not enough. Plaid, I’m afraid, simply do not figure (we’re just a bit too far east). UKIP = Tory, as ever, but especially now.
    Even with a lazy MP, Con hold.

  6. Wimbury declined, Emily Owen selected for Labour.

  7. ACV – I get the impression you’re not overly enamoured with the present incumbent.

  8. Paul D – you have a positive gift for understatement.

  9. Guto Bebb has resigned as a Defence Minister. He was unhappy with the concessions May gave to the ERG today.

  10. https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/four-tory-members-have-gone-public-to-accuse-the-party-of

    Guto Bebb accused of “violent behaviour” towards Conservative Party members.

    Yet another test case for this supposedly beefed-up complaints procedure that parties have to follow. And once again, sadly, I imagine nothing will come of it. The Tories certainly won’t want to imperil an MP with a three-figure majority.

  11. Interesting that one of the complainants is ex-cabinet minister David Jones, who of course will be going head to head against Bebb for the Tory nomination for the new and fairly safe seat of Conway & Colwyn, as both their current seats disappear in the 2018 boundary review

    This will be a classic battle between a moderate and a right-winger, and Jones has every reason to hope that these seemingly spurious charges against Bebb go somewhere

  12. I should say I do have a vested interest in this as my father, whose increasingly reliant on the NHS as he approaches his eighties, lives in Llandudno, which of course is one of the main towns in the new seat, and have to say that I find the idea of him being represented in Parliament by David Jones quite frankly c

  13. should read ‘quite frankly repugnant’

  14. Guto Bebb to stand down at the next election.

  15. A few rumours floating around that both Bebb and Philip Lee may defect to the Lib Dems upon Johnson’s conformation as leader. As ever, I’ll believe it when I see it.

  16. Philip Lee has been rumoured for some time now

  17. He might end the Lib Dems’ historic drought in Wales, if he doesn’t then the Brecon & Ranorshire by-election is likely to do so a few days later.

  18. ‘A few rumours floating around that both Bebb and Philip Lee may defect to the Lib Dems upon Johnson’s conformation as leader’

    I think there’s mileage in that

    Bebb’s latest comments I would have thought make a defection odds on

    It wouldn’t surprise if about half a dozen Tory MPs follow their lead once Johnson is confirmed as next PM – Grive, Sandbach etc

  19. It would be an interesting story in any event but it’s particularly pertinent now as the Tories are close to losing their majority…even with DUP support.

    With each passing day I’m increasingly convinced that Johnson will be a disaster as PM. He’ll make Brown, Cameron and May look tremendous in comparison.

  20. “With each passing day I’m increasingly convinced that Johnson will be a disaster as PM.”

    I wonder if he will use war with Iran as a distraction from Brexit. He is so far up Trump’s rear end I can’t see him refusing to participate in military action.

  21. Possibly – Boris sounds more keen for an actual war with Iran than Trump (Who is notably more skeptic of a war with Iran than many who work in his administration.)

  22. I am not sure how popular a war with Iran would be among the public – The legacy of Iraq is still a big influence – The public opposed strikes in Syria to attack Assad where civilians were being killed by him. (I.e a sense of saving people could be argued.)

  23. And at this very moment Boris Johnson has ruled out a War with Iran – but he is hardly likely to say the opposite.

  24. ‘I am not sure how popular a war with Iran would be among the public’.

    You’re not sure? Really? A war with Iran would be about as popular as a boil on the backside with the vast majority of the public. That is *not* what Boris’ fan club have voted him in for.

  25. ‘And at this very moment Boris Johnson has ruled out a War with Iran’

    He was pretty unequivocal about it too – but then we all know what Johnson says and what he does are two very separate things – although I believe him on this one

  26. Ex-Plaid Bebb complaining about nationalism(!)

  27. Tristan – there’s no evidence for your assertion, however.

    Even wars such as Iraq – which are not now as popular – were popular at the time.

    Indeed poll boosts for the governing Party occurred in all conflicts, not just the Falklands. Indeed Thrasher pointed this out re Major, ie it wasn’t just the change of PM that provided the boost – the first Gulf War did too (to Bush Snr and Major).

    HH – are you suggesting any British PM (other than Corbyn) wouldn’t support or be involved in any strike on Iran?

  28. “HH – are you suggesting any British PM (other than Corbyn) wouldn’t support or be involved in any strike on Iran?”

    Sadly not, though I hold out a small vain hope that we might end up with a PM who isn’t Corbyn who has the courage to tell Trump to f-off….Ed Davey, Tom Watson or Ken Clarke perhaps. All 500-1 shots I know.

    The way you phrased the comment suggests you support military action against Iran. Not sure why you would want to rerun the Iraq war on nuclear steroids.

  29. “Tristan – there’s no evidence for your assertion, however.”

    The Brexit heartlands are sure to welcome the millions of Iranian refugees with open arms aren’t they

  30. The first gulf war was easier to justify – it was libreating people. Iran would not have the same impact on the public.

  31. ‘it wasn’t just the change of PM that provided the boost – the first Gulf War did too (to Bush Snr and Major)’

    Fat lot if good it did Bush in the long term who became one of only 2 single-term Presidents (the other being Carter, Ford doesn’t count as he didn’t serve a full term) since the second world war

    It is though easy to forget that the second strike on Iraq – although much harder to justify than the first – was actually backed by the public at the timer – even the Guardian supported it – although of course this wasn’t the case fir long

    Iran would be different, not least because of the difficulties thrown up by our recent Middle East interventions

  32. One wonders whether the British people will ever swing back towards a more neoconservative stance. The thing is that staying out of Syria has done eff all beyond entrench Assad and give Putin a PR victory. But British people just don’t care how many Syrians have died in the civil war. It’s only the deaths of British troops that upset them, for the most part. The asymmetric pay-offs (for want of a better word) mean that foreign policy will not have the same countercyclical effect that British politics sees in most areas.

  33. What has intervention against Syria got to do with potential intervention in Iran? They are totally different situations. Obama and the EU reached a deal with Iran after years of escalating tension and it was progressing fairly well until Trump unilaterally ripped it up for naked political reasons.

  34. “The thing is that staying out of Syria has done eff all beyond entrench Assad and give Putin a PR victory. But British people just don’t care how many Syrians have died in the civil war. It’s only the deaths of British troops that upset them”

    Can I ask why you haven’t joined the military yourself given you are so keen to blow other people up? Or are you happy to order the poorer, younger and more stupid to go and do it on your behalf? I’m sorry but the sheer stupidity of your post leaves me fizzing with anger. I’d rather do f-all, as you put it, than make things an almighty lot worse.

  35. For the general public the middle east is all one region – how many people understand all the alliances, backgrounds and tensions each country has.

  36. Rubbish

  37. I’d rather do f-all, as you put it, than make things an almighty lot worse.

    It’s hard to imagine how things could get worst with Putin’s forces specifically targeting civilians and hospitals in their grubby quest to entrench the vile Assad and his murderous regime, but they undoubtedly could, as examples like Libya and Iraq prove

  38. A murderous dictator versus barbaric islamists. I’d rather assist neither unless it directly impinges on our national interest.

    But I was talking about Iran until others changed the subject, and that is a totally different situation.

  39. Iran has apparently seized a British Tanker. Boris Johnson first act could well be to declare war on Iran.

  40. That of course being that May does not do it first- trump could easily have bombed Tehran by Tuesday.

  41. How the Middle Class [liberals] Ruined Britain, is on BBC2 on Tuesday night.

    I certainly concur with his point about hypocritical politicians on grammar schools.

    Spotlight (tonight BBC2) is also worth watching as an example of investigative journalism and politicians covering up scandals.

  42. HH – I was merely reminding posters that military action has always – to date – resulted in a short-term boost for the governing Party and patriotism.

    Although the Falklands is the most mentioned – due to footage of street parties and parades – there is also polling evidence re the Gulf War and not surprising given that eg captured Tornado crew were paraded on tv looking battered and bruised.

    I don’t support unnecessary pre-emptive strikes (which Israel or Bolton do) asap, but I certainly would support action if Iran continues to act and breach international law. I assume – as Lord West stated – that any vessels with British Nationals on will wait for escorts from Royal Navy ships. Otherwise Iran will end up with British hostages.

  43. Of course it depends if the action is successful – the Falklands and Gulf war had simple aims which were achieved fairly quickly. A war with Iran wouldn’t.

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