Aberavon

2015 Result:
Conservative: 3742 (11.9%)
Labour: 15416 (48.9%)
Lib Dem: 1397 (4.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 3663 (11.6%)
Green: 711 (2.3%)
UKIP: 4971 (15.8%)
TUSC: 134 (0.4%)
Independent: 1137 (3.6%)
Others: 352 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 10445 (33.1%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: Wales, West Glamorgan. Part of the Neath Port Talbot council area.

Main population centres: Port Talbot, Cwmafan, Baglan.

Profile: An industrial seat in South Wales, situated at the mouth of the River Afon (or Avon, the origin of the name). The seat largely consists of the town of Port Talbot, but also includes the Afan Valley, the huge Tata steelworks to the South of the town, the oil refinery and the Baglan Bay power station..

Politics: Aberavon has been represented by the Labour party since 1922, most famously by Ramsay MacDonald during his first term as Prime Minister. It remains a solid Labour bastion. It is also regularly contested by Captain Beany, a perennial fringe candidate and superhero.


Current MP
STEPHEN KINNOCK (Labour) Born 1970, Tredegar, son of former Labour leader Neil Kinnock. Educated at Drayton Manor High School and Cambridge University. Former director of the World Economic Forum. First elected as MP for Aberavon in 2015. Married to the Danish Prime Minister, Helle Thorning-Schmidt.
Past Results
2010
Con: 4411 (14%)
Lab: 16073 (52%)
LDem: 5034 (16%)
PC: 2198 (7%)
Oth: 3242 (10%)
MAJ: 11039 (36%)
2005
Con: 3064 (10%)
Lab: 18077 (60%)
LDem: 4140 (14%)
PC: 3545 (12%)
Oth: 1278 (4%)
MAJ: 13937 (46%)
2001
Con: 2296 (8%)
Lab: 19063 (63%)
LDem: 2933 (10%)
PC: 2955 (10%)
Oth: 2943 (10%)
MAJ: 16108 (53%)
1997
Con: 2835 (8%)
Lab: 25650 (71%)
LDem: 4079 (11%)
PC: 2088 (6%)
Oth: 1311 (4%)
MAJ: 21571 (60%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
EDWARD YI HE (Conservative) Born Chongqing. Engineer.
STEPHEN KINNOCK (Labour) Born 1970, Tredegar, son of former Labour leader Neil Kinnock. Educated at Drayton Manor High School and Cambridge University. Former director of the World Economic Forum. Married to the Danish Prime Minister, Helle Thorning-Schmidt.
HELEN CERI CLARKE (Liberal Democrat)
PETER BUSH (UKIP)
JONATHAN TIER (Green)
DUNCAN HIGGITT (Plaid)
ANDREW JORDAN (Socialist Labour Party) Contested South Wales Central 2011, Cardiff South and Penarth 2012 by-election, Wales region 2014 European election.
OWEN HERBERT (TUSC)
CAPTAIN BEANY (New Millenium Bean) , real name Barry Kirk. Superhero. Contested Aberavon 1992, 1997, 2001, Ogmore 2002, Cardiff Central 2005, Aberavon 2010.
Links
Comments - 69 Responses on “Aberavon”
  1. If it wasn’t for the comparative context of thousands of potential job losses, I’d feel a bit sorry for him. He’s had to fly to Australia and back in the space of three days, with his teenage daughter apparently in tow. That plane must be like The Thick of It.

  2. I do feel sorry for him, though MrNameless is of course right that it it pales into insignificance compared to the potential job losses were it to close. He’s entitled to make a ministerial visit during a recess, and entitled to take his daughter with him as long as he’s paying (which he was). Perhaps in hindsight he might have stopped off in Mumbai on the way but I’m not really sure what a minister could have achieved there that couldn’t be achieved over the phone. I suppose he had to come back but whilst TATA are trying to sell it I’m not sure there is much the government can do at this stage other than urging them not to close it – where any intervention comes in would be if they are going to close it.

  3. I don’t feel sorry for him. He decided to go off for a jolly when he should have known the steel industry could collapse.

  4. There has been a by-election in a ward in Caerphilly tonight where the Tory got 7 votes… I’m guessing the ward isn’t exactly natural Tory territory but that’s still pretty appalling!

  5. How many nominations do you need to stand?

  6. Eight I think

  7. 10. But as was discussed here a while back, often in truly hopeless areas the Tories will just knock on doors at random, trying to get people sign their nomination papers for the sake of democracy.

  8. Looks like Port Talbot steel works is finished, at least in its present form.

  9. A motion of no confidence was filled in Stephen Kinnock at the CLP meeting here earlier this week. I think but am not 100% sure but It seems it did pass.

  10. With the majority of the nearly 130 thousand new members said to be staunchly pro Corbyn it’s hard to not see deselection’s occurring when the trigger ballots go out in two – three years time ( and of course there is still a 10-20% chance of a general election within the next year)

  11. I wouldn’t have thought so until I heard this.

    In a debate between Rhea Wolfson and Tessa Jowell both were very determined that a split should not happen.

    In a speech Neil Kinnock made to the PLP he said, ‘this is our party I have been a member for 60 years for God sake’. The feeling that the party is almost an inheritance being fought over, I have found among many Labour members I havec spoken to.

    In splits that have taken place in the past, the feeling from those that left was that the Labour Party had left them not the other way round. This time I’ve got the impression that unless something was to give neither side would make the first move.

    However, if MPs were deselected I can’t see them taking that lying down. At that point they would have nothing to lose. Being a Labour MP is probably the single thing keeping them from jumping ship. Once they don’t even have that then what’s to stop them standing against the party. If they can’t be the Labour MP then why should they let anyone else replace them. To paraphrase Joe Ashton:

    ‘If a group of deselected MPs wanted to start their own party, they could be in business in 6 months’.

    The question is I think, do they stand as independents or a parliamentary group.

  12. It seems there’s hope for steel here after all.

  13. Edward Yi He is conservative candidate here in Aberavon, BUT also the con cand. in Leicester East.

    Leicester East SoPN :-

    h
    ttp://www.leicester.gov.uk/media/183470/statement-of-persons-nominated-leicester-east.pdf

    Aberavon SoPN :-

    h
    ttps://www.npt.gov.uk/pdf/Elections_NOP_Aberavon_UKPGE.pdf
    I think this has happened before, and as long as he doesn’t come top of the poll in both constituencies, all will be well . . .

    BR

  14. Good spot!

  15. Though actually I think this is wrong. Yi He was the Con candidate in Aberavon in 2015, this time it is Sadie Vidal.

  16. Jack S. Yes, thanks. I got this wrong. Didn’t spot that the SoPN I was looking at was the 2015 one!! So, as you were.

    BR

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)