Carshalton & Wallington
2015 Result:
Conservative: 15093 (31.7%)
Labour: 7150 (15%)
Lib Dem: 16603 (34.9%)
Green: 1492 (3.1%)
UKIP: 7049 (14.8%)
Others: 226 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 1510 (3.2%)
Category: Marginal Liberal Democrat seat
Geography: Greater London. Part of the Sutton council area.
Main population centres: Carshalton, Wallington.
Profile: An affluent residential seat, but less so than some of the other Liberal Democrat strongholds in south-west London - this is more middle-of-the-road suburbia than it is luxury. There are also substantial council estates here, with the Roundshaw development on the old Croydon Airport site and the southern half of the large St Helier estate.
Politics: Once a solid Conservative seat this fell to the Liberal Democrats in 1997. The old core of Labour support has been squeezed by the Con-Lib Dem contest, with the old areas of Labour strength on the council estates now bases of Lib Dem support.
| Con: | 16920 (37%) |
| Lab: | 4015 (9%) |
| LDem: | 22180 (48%) |
| UKIP: | 1348 (3%) |
| Oth: | 1455 (3%) |
| MAJ: | 5260 (11%) |
| Con: | 16289 (38%) |
| Lab: | 7396 (17%) |
| LDem: | 17357 (40%) |
| UKIP: | 1111 (3%) |
| Oth: | 908 (2%) |
| MAJ: | 1068 (2%) |
| Con: | 13742 (34%) |
| Lab: | 7466 (18%) |
| LDem: | 18289 (45%) |
| GRN: | 614 (2%) |
| Oth: | 501 (1%) |
| MAJ: | 4547 (11%) |
| Con: | 16223 (34%) |
| Lab: | 11565 (24%) |
| LDem: | 18490 (38%) |
| Oth: | 856 (2%) |
| MAJ: | 2267 (5%) |
*There were boundary changes after 2005
Tories came back strongly here despite this being the more pro EU half of the borough. Brexit clearly didn’t play much in the lcoal elections.
I meant Sutton and Cheam, the LDs held up better in this seat.
The divide is quite interesting overall, Labour didn’t quite make it in Wandle Valley and St Helier.
Wallington North ward by-election, 28.03.19:
LibDem 1,039 38% ( – 8% )
Cons 709 26% ( +1% )
Ind 381 14% ( + 14% )
Lab 301 11% ( – 6% )
Green 166 6% ( – 2% )
UKIP 104 4% ( + 1% )
CPA 17
LD Hold.
Is Tom Brake safe here, or might this fall into the uncertain category like N Norfolk and Eastbourne?
I expect the popular local Tory boy to beat Brake.
Note: Carshalton and W voted Leave 57% it is estimated.
Recent history has shown that there’s no such thing as a safe LibDem seat. However, the Conservatives fielded a strong candidate against Norman Lamb in Norfolk North in 2017 and failed to win. What’s the ‘popular local Tory boy’ said or done to put him into such a strong position here?
In a rare ray of London light for the Tories, I think they will gain this.
I agree – likely no net change for the Libs with gaining Richmond Park and losing here (And coming fairly close in a few other tory held seats.)
Kensington also very likely to change hands with Labour third by most accounts. Tories most likely, Lib Dems not far behind, which suggests a big part of Labour’s 2017 vote was anti-Brexit Tories and and now they can actually vote for one of those they’re quite keen to do so.
C&W is too working-class to be a Lib Dem seat these days. They hold four notionally leave-voting seats right now but I suspect the Tories will gobble them all up next week.
Through they were only elected Lib Dems in three of them.
Could also lose remain voting Westmoreland.
No I meant seats that have specifically elected Lib Dems – Carshalton & Walllington, North Norfolk, Eastbourne, Brecon & Radnorshire
Of the Lib Dem seats in South West London this does look the most vulnerable but I’d expect Brake to defy the odds again here – as he has at almost every election since he defeated Nigel Forman in 1997.
The interesting question is how they will fare in other affluent remain supporting London constituencies where they don’t have any history of electoral success locally or nationally
I can’t see them winning too many if any at all if I’m perfectly honest although I never thought they would win the cluster of seats on the south west periphery that they did in 97 – mostly on very large swings
Tom Brake’s Christmas card to local Lib Dem members says he won’t stand again to try and regain his seat.
22 years and six election victories is a pretty good run.