The weekly YouGov/Sunday Times poll is up online here. Topline voting intentions are CON 32%, LAB 39%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 14%.
Most of the survey covers British attitudes to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. Broadly speaking, public opinion is strongly on the side of the Ukraine over Russia, but that does not necessarily translate into support for any real western intervention. Only 11% of people think that Russia’s intervention into the Crimea is justified, 67% think it is not. 50% are more sympathetic towards the Ukraine, just 3% Russia.
42% of people think that Britain and the west should take some sort of economic sanctions on Russia even if it damages the British economy slightly, 25% think the dispute between Russia and the Ukraine does not impact British interests, so we should not do anything that might damage our own economy, however slight.
Asked about some specific measures, the only response that gets clear support is trade sanctions against Russia (by 50% to 25%). People are divided over expelling Russia from the G8 (38% support, 33% oppose), freezing Russian assets (38% support, 33% oppose) or giving financial aid to Ukraine (32% support, 38% oppose). There is majority opposition to breaking off diplomatic relations with Russia (21% support, 55% oppose), giving military aid to Ukraine (15% support, 59% oppose) or deploying Western troops to Russia (11% support, 64% oppose).
Ramping up the situation, if Russia takes permanent control of the Crimea and all diplomatic and economic attempts to stop them fail 15% of people would support the USA and allies taking military action. 48% say the west should use diplomatic and economic means to try and stop it, but should stop short of military action.
As we rather expected from this morning’s tables, the monthly ComRes telephone poll for the Indy has the Labour lead up again after the unusual one point lead a month ago. Topline figures are CON 30%(-2), LAB 38%(+5), LDEM 10%(+1), UKIP 11%(-3). Part of this will be simply a reversion to the mean after the unusual poll last month, but even accounting for that its a larger than usual Labour lead from ComRes’s phone polls.
Meanwhile the daily YouGov/Sun poll has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%.
This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 41%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%. The Labour lead of nine points is higher than YouGov have shown of late, but as ever, don’t get too excited about individual polls apparently showing movement, more often than not they’ll turn out to just be normal sample variation. Full tabs are here.
YouGov also had some initial Ukraine questions. The British public are far more sympathetic to Ukraine (53%) than Russia (3%). By 50% to 33% they think the situation in Ukraine is something that should concern Britain and the West, not just a matter for Russia & Ukraine. Tabs here.
Meanwhile yesterday’s Populus poll had figures of CON 34%, LAB 37%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%. Their full tables are here. Populus have also started a deal with the FT to provide a big monthly poll of about 14000 people. I assume this the aggregated data from all their twice-weekly polls each month, rather than new and distinct data, but it does provide bigger cross-breaks to look at. The first batch of aggregated Populus/FT data is here.
We are still overdue the ComRes/Indy monthly telephone poll. This morning’s Indy has a couple of findings from the poll, but not the voting intention figures. However, the tabs on the ComRes website do have voting intention as a crossbreak, so I think we can expect tonight’s poll to show something in the region of Conservative 29%, Labour 37%, Lib Dem 10%, UKIP 11%. We shall presumably see tonight. IF that is the case, it will be a bit of a reversion to the mean after a bit of an outlier last month that showed only a one point Labour lead, but also shows a lower level of Conservative support than ComRes have shown for sometime. Essentially it looks like a odd poll last month and a bit of an usual poll this month have combined to produce a big jump in Labour’s lead that is not reflected in the wider trend of opinion polling… but we shall see how the Indy report it ;)
Saturday’s Sun newspaper had a new YouGov poll of Scottish voting intentions with topline figures of YES 35%(+1), NO 53%(+1). There’s obviously no significant change from YouGov’s previous poll, carried out at the start of February before the recent currency row, and the NO lead remains at 18 points. The referendum results are here and there are some additional questions here. In his commentary on the YouGov website today Peter Kellner suggests views are pretty solid – the currency story hasn’t made much impact because the vast majority (79%) of YES supporters just didn’t believe it and assumed the British political parties were bluffing (though a fair amount of YES supporters would also prefer an independent Scottish currency anyway).
There was a similar break when people were asked about an independent Scotland’s position in the European Union – the large majority (70%) of YES supporters think that an independent Scotland will be able to make a smooth transition to membership on day one, only 15% of NO voters think they would. The arguments that dominate the Scottish independence debate don’t really appear to be changing any minds, people are just viewing them through their pre-existing support for YES or NO.
In a similar vein there is a new Ipsos MORI Scottish poll, also timed to mark the 200 days to go point, and again showing very little change. Amongst those certain to vote YES is on 32%(-2), NO is on 57%(nc), Don’t knows 11%. Changes are from the previous MORI poll in December 2013. Full tabs are here.
This week YouGov/Sunday Times results are here. Topline voting intention figures are CON 34%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%.
Politically the most interesting questions were about Harriet Harman and the ongoing NCCL/PIE/Daily Mail row, essentially measuring its lack of impact. Only 34% of people say they have been following the story very (6%) or fairly (28%) closely. 42% of people haven’t followed it at all or are completely unaware of it. This is reflected in the other questions which all produced large levels of “don’t knows” – it appears to be a story that hasn’t really caught the public’s attention or at least, the public don’t know what to think about vague allegations from long ago.
Public opinion towards Harriet Harman is very much divided – 26% say PIE probably did have influence over NCCL, 33% that it probably didn’t, 41% say they don’t know. 34% agree with Harman that is it is just a politically motivated smear, 35% that it is legitimate investigation. 35% think that Jack Dromey probably did active condemn PIE, 20% think he probably did not, 45% don’t know
Overall 34% think that Harriet Harman and Jack Dromey do have cause to apologise, 32% think that it’s a storm in a teacup and they do not. There’s a consistent party skew to the answers throughout – most Labour voters think it’s a smear and take the side of Harman and Dromey, many Tory supporters think they have something to apologise for.
The broad thrust of the results is that the story hasn’t really cut through to the public – rather than some great swathe of public outrage, people who disliked Labour to begin with seem to think they’ve done something wrong, people who support Labour to begin with seem to think it’s a smear, most people don’t seem to care one way or the other.