The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is up here. Voting intentions are CON 32%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16%. The 16% for UKIP is the highest YouGov have shown them at for three months, just after the European elections. It’s likely that the publicity over Douglas Carswell’s defection may have helped this, but remember YouGov have updated their methodology since then which has also boosted UKIP by a point. A defection is pretty quickly forgotten though, the real kicker from the Carswell defection is the by-election that comes with it, if UKIP win that by anything like last night’s Survation poll suggests expect a much more concrete impact on the polls.
YouGov also asked again about Western intervention in Iraq. Support for humanitarian intervention (77% support) and American air strikes against ISIS (56% support) are broadly unchanged. Support for RAF participation in air strikes is 43%, down 2 points since a week ago. It’s not a significant change, but it suggests the steady growth in support for British airstrikes that YouGov had been recording has now halted. People are slightly less supportive of extending air strikes against ISIS into Syria – 45% would support US airstrikes in Syria (24% opposed), 37% would support British airstrikes in Syria (37% opposed).
86% of people think that British citizens going to fight for Islamist forces pose a threat when they return here, and 79% think British citizens fighting for ISIS has increased the risk of terrorist attack on Britain.
Turning to the situation in Rotherham, 75% of people think that Shaun Wright, the South Yorkshire Police Commissioner, should resign from his post. 74% think any other people in senior roles in Rotherham council or police at the time of the child sexual exploitation scandal should also resign. More generally YouGov asked if people thought that when an organisation commits serious errors the people at the top should resign anyway, or should they only resign if they are personally at fault. It was an even split – 42% thought an organisations leaders should resign in the case of serious error even if they were not personally to blame, 43% that they should only go if they were personally to blame.
Quick off the mark following Douglas Carswell’s defection on Thusday Survation have a poll of Clacton in the Mail on Sunday that apparently shows a cracking great UKIP lead.
From the details that have been tweeted out so far the topline figures are CON 20%(-33), LAB 13%(-12), LDEM 2%(-11), UKIP 64%(+64%). We don’t have dates, sample size, questions and so on yet but prima facie it’s pretty unambiguous: Carswell will romp home with ease. If it does happen so convincingly expect a big impact in the national polls too from the publicity and the impact of people seeing a UKIP vote can return a UKIP MP (not to mention whatever temptations it would throw to any other potential Conservative defectors…)
UPDATE: Tabs are here, sample size 700, done on Thurs-Fri.
The fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer is out tonight. Topline figures are CON 30%(+2), LAB 36%(+4), LDEM 7%(-3), UKIP 16%(-5).
The sharp fall in UKIP support probably isn’t meaningful at all, the Opinium poll a fortnight ago had them jumping five points to a rather incongruous 21%, today’s poll is probably just a reversion to the mean. For those looking for a “Carswell effect” don’t look here: the fieldwork for this poll started on Tuesday, so most of the responses probably came before his defection.
Survation have a new Scottish referendum poll in tomorrow’s Daily Mail. Topline figures are YES 42%(+5), NO 48%(-2), Don’t knows 11%(-2) (excluding don’t knows it is YES 47%, up 4). This is the first poll since the second Salmond-Darling debate, and on the face of it shows a significant movement to yes since before the debate.
Remember, however, that the previous Survation poll showed a sharp movement to NO. Putting that one aside, this poll is actually very similar to Survation’s longer term trend – their polls in June, July and at the start of August all had YES on 47%, before a sharp drop to 43% in their poll following the first debate. There are two ways you can interpret that – one is that Scottish opinion swung towards NO following the first debate that Darling was deemed to have “won”, and swung back following the second debate that Salmond “won”. The alternative explantion is that the previous Survation poll was just a bit of an outlier and nothing has really changed at all. Anyway, no doubt we will have some more post-debate polls along soon – tabs for the Survation poll are already up here, polls so far are here.
This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%.
All very normal, but worth noting a slight update in methodology. As regular readers will know, YouGov’s political weighting is based on panelists recorded party identification in May 2010, meaning they don’t have to worry about changes in party ID over time – they weight people’s 2010 ID to 2010 targets. However, over the years new people join the panel, so the target weights need to adapt to this and reflect to some proportion that Lib Dem ID has fallen and UKIP ID has grown – hence once a year YouGov update the weights to reflect this. The changes this year decrease the target weight for Lib Dem ID and increase the target for Other (primarily UKIP) ID.
The end result is that the new weights tend to show UKIP 1 point higher, the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems very slightly lower (less than a percentage point in all cases).