Long after I should have, I have finally got round to collecting up polling for the Scottish Independence Referendum next year on its own page here (though I’ve put the polls as they stand in this post too). This should include all the polls so far that have asked the referendum question since it was set last year (both before and after the Electoral Commission tweaked it!).
As you can see, there isn’t actually any obvious trend in the polling, each company’s figures seem to be roughly steady. The main variation there is actually between Panelbase, who do regular polling for the Sunday Times, and the polling done by Ipsos MORI, TNS BMRB and other companies, with Panelbase tending to show a much tighter race than the others. One can only speculate what the reasons might be. Panelbase take the slightly strange decision of only including people certain to vote in a Scottish Parliament election in their samples for referendum voting intention, which could have an impact. There could also be a mode effect – Panelbase use online fieldwork, MORI conduct interviews by telephone, TNS BRMB use face-to-face polling (a method that has otherwise all but vanished from British political polling). It is no doubt something we will return to closer to the actual referendum.
|Survey End Date||Yes||No||Wouldn’t vote||D/K||Yes Lead|
|Panelbase/Sunday Times (1)||16/05/13||36||44||<1||20||-8|
|Panelbase/Sunday Times (1)||22/03/13||36||46||0||18||-10|
|TNS-BMRB/Scottish CND (1)||28/02/13||33||52||n/a||15||-19|
|Angus Reid/Mail on Sunday(1)||01/02/13||32||47||1||20||-15|
|Panelbase/Sunday Times (2)||22/01/13||34||47||<1||19||-13|
|Angus Reid/Sunday Express (2)||04/01/13||32||50||3||16||-18|
|YouGov/DC Thompson (2)||24/10/12||29||55||2||14||-26|
|Panelbase/Sunday Times (2)||19/10/12||37||45||0||17||-8|
|Panelbase/Sunday Times (2)||10/08/12||35||44||0||21||-9|
|Panelbase/Sunday Times (2)||17/07/12||36||45||0||20||-9|
|Panelbase/Sunday Times (2)||01/02/12||37||42||<1||21||-5|
UPDATE: With remarkable timing, the Sun Politics team have put up tonight’s YouGov figures (for Great Britain!) just as I put up a new post. Tonight’s daily poll stands at CON 27%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 16%. The Conservative 27% matches their lowest score this Parliament with YouGov (previously seen just after the locals at the start of the month). Usual caveats apply, it may be a blip and be back to normal tomorrow, but coming after that Survation poll at the weekend it could be we are seeing damage from the latest bout of infighting. Keep an eye on it.